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A Kazakh Gorbachev? Why some expect change from new leader.

When Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev called in September for snap elections, it was due to the mass unrest triggered by the country’s profound economic dysfunctions and inequalities.

But while the election result was widely expected in what is viewed as a typical post-Soviet autocracy – Mr. Tokayev won last weekend with 81.3% of the vote – what the president does next may not be.

Why We Wrote This

Amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan is set to redefine its foreign relations. While Astana cannot sever its ties with Moscow, it now has an opportunity to engage more broadly with the world.

Some analysts say that Mr. Tokayev could bring sweeping changes, including domestic economic and political reforms, as well as a foreign policy stance that distances the country from its traditional sponsor, Russia, in favor of greater openness to the world.

Russia’s subsequent invasion of Ukraine has been disquieting for Kazakhstan, which resembles Ukraine in having a large Russian minority and post-Soviet borders that have been disputed by many Russian nationalists.

“Tokayev has stated his intention to make Kazakhstan a more inclusive society, more democratic, decentralize to give more functions to regions, strengthen the parliament, and reduce the powers of the presidency,” says Andrey Kortunov, head of the Russian International Affairs Council. Tokayev says he intends to expand “contacts with the world, not just the U.S. and Europe, but also countries like India and Turkey. … This tendency became quite explicit after the war started, and it does pose a challenge to Moscow.”

The result in Kazakhstan’s presidential election last weekend may have been thoroughly predictable. It was, after all, a whopping 81.3% victory for President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, anointed successor to Nursultan Nazarbayev, the ruler since Soviet times of a Central Asian republic widely viewed as a typical post-Soviet autocracy.

But some analysts say that what’s happening in Kazakhstan is not simply another case of a regime transitioning rulers while maintaining the same old order.

Rather, they suggest that an example of an old-fashioned leader turned champion of necessary change – the classic case is Mikhail Gorbachev – could be rising on the troubled steppes of Kazakhstan. Mr. Tokayev’s election, though widely panned in the West as lacking competition, could herald sweeping changes, including domestic economic and political reforms, as well as a foreign policy stance that distances the country from its traditional sponsor, Russia, in favor of greater openness to the world.

Why We Wrote This

Amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan is set to redefine its foreign relations. While Astana cannot sever its ties with Moscow, it now has an opportunity to engage more broadly with the world.

“Tokayev has stated his intention to make Kazakhstan a more inclusive society, more democratic, decentralize to give more functions to regions, strengthen the parliament, and reduce the powers of the presidency,” says Andrey Kortunov, head of the Russian International Affairs Council, which is affiliated with the foreign ministry. “The Russia-Ukraine conflict has also presented an opportunity to diversify Kazakhstan’s relationships, to open up the system.

“Tokayev has declared that his country will pursue a multivector foreign policy, which means expanding contacts with the world, not just the U.S. and Europe, but also countries like India and Turkey,” Mr. Kortunov adds. “This tendency became quite explicit after the war [in Ukraine] started, and it does pose a challenge to Moscow.”

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