When Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev called in September for snap elections, it was due to the mass unrest triggered by the country’s profound economic dysfunctions and inequalities.
But while the election result was widely expected in what is viewed as a typical post-Soviet autocracy – Mr. Tokayev won last weekend with 81.3% of the vote – what the president does next may not be.
Why We Wrote This
Amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan is set to redefine its foreign relations. While Astana cannot sever its ties with Moscow, it now has an opportunity to engage more broadly with the world.
Some analysts say that Mr. Tokayev could bring sweeping changes, including domestic economic and political reforms, as well as a foreign policy stance that distances the country from its traditional sponsor, Russia, in favor of greater openness to the world.
Russia’s subsequent invasion of Ukraine has been disquieting for Kazakhstan, which resembles Ukraine in having a large Russian minority and post-Soviet borders that have been disputed by many Russian nationalists.
“Tokayev has stated his intention to make Kazakhstan a more inclusive society, more democratic, decentralize to give more functions to regions, strengthen the parliament, and reduce the powers of the presidency,” says Andrey Kortunov, head of the Russian International Affairs Council. Tokayev says he intends to expand “contacts with the world, not just the U.S. and Europe, but also countries like India and Turkey. … This tendency became quite explicit after the war started, and it does pose a challenge to Moscow.”
The result in Kazakhstan’s presidential election last weekend may have been thoroughly predictable. It was, after all, a whopping 81.3% victory for President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, anointed successor to Nursultan Nazarbayev, the ruler since Soviet times of a Central Asian republic widely viewed as a typical post-Soviet autocracy.
But some analysts say that what’s happening in Kazakhstan is not simply another case of a regime transitioning rulers while maintaining the same old order.
Rather, they suggest that an example of an old-fashioned leader turned champion of necessary change – the classic case is Mikhail Gorbachev – could be rising on the troubled steppes of Kazakhstan. Mr. Tokayev’s election, though widely panned in the West as lacking competition, could herald sweeping changes, including domestic economic and political reforms, as well as a foreign policy stance that distances the country from its traditional sponsor, Russia, in favor of greater openness to the world.
Why We Wrote This
Amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan is set to redefine its foreign relations. While Astana cannot sever its ties with Moscow, it now has an opportunity to engage more broadly with the world.
“Tokayev has stated his intention to make Kazakhstan a more inclusive society, more democratic, decentralize to give more functions to regions, strengthen the parliament, and reduce the powers of the presidency,” says Andrey Kortunov, head of the Russian International Affairs Council, which is affiliated with the foreign ministry. “The Russia-Ukraine conflict has also presented an opportunity to diversify Kazakhstan’s relationships, to open up the system.
“Tokayev has declared that his country will pursue a multivector foreign policy, which means expanding contacts with the world, not just the U.S. and Europe, but also countries like India and Turkey,” Mr. Kortunov adds. “This tendency became quite explicit after the war [in Ukraine] started, and it does pose a challenge to Moscow.”
Critiquing Moscow …
Mr. Tokayev’s call for snap elections in September was driven by the profound economic dysfunctions and inequalities that have troubled post-Soviet Kazakhstan, so severe that they triggered mass unrest, leading to a brief Russian-led military intervention in January to restore stability.
Russia’s subsequent invasion of Ukraine has been disquieting for many countries of the region, none more so than Kazakhstan, which resembles Ukraine in having a large Russian minority and post-Soviet borders that have been disputed, not by the Kremlin, but many leading Russian nationalists.
Addressing the United Nations General Assembly in September, Mr. Tokayev offered a tough critique, without mentioning Russia by name, of big powers that are undermining the reliable old international order and ushering in a “new, more chaotic and unpredictable one. … The world is falling prey to a new set of military conflicts. For the first time in two generations, we face the prospect of the use of nuclear weapons, and not even as a last resort.”
Analysts say that, despite growing unease in the capital of Astana with the Ukraine war, Kazakhstan doesn’t appear to be planning on a radical break with Russia anytime soon. Kazakhstan has no border with Europe, they note, while both Russia and China are immediate neighbors. And Russia, which pulled the Kazakh leadership’s chestnuts out of the fire during the January unrest, remains the country’s primary security provider. Most analysts add that much will depend on how the Ukraine war concludes.
“Kazakhstan adheres to a policy of neutrality, maintaining relations with both Russia and Ukraine, and adhering to the principles of territorial integrity, independence, and sovereignty,” says Yury Buluktayev, an expert at the official Institute of Philosophy, Political Science and Religious Studies in Almaty, Kazakhstan. “We can’t predict the future course of our relations with Russia until the war ends.
“Meanwhile, we’ll continue developing our relations in all directions,” he adds. “Recently we have discussed the idea of strategic partnership with the European Union. The multivector policy teaches that many diverse interests should be taken into account.”
… But tied closely to Russia
Russia’s war in Ukraine has produced contradictory economic effects in the region. Several countries of Central Asia, including Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, used to provide millions of migrant workers to power the once-booming Russian economy. Most of those workers have now returned home amid Russia’s shifting wartime economic conditions. In their place, nearly 3 million Ukrainian refugees now get top employment priority.
“Kazakhstan was never a source of migrant labor for Russia, but some of our neighbors have suffered serious losses of revenue as their people are coming home,” says Andrei Chebotaryov, director of Alternativa, an independent political think tank in Almaty. “We have different economic issues as a result of Russians moving to Kazakhstan, relocating businesses here and navigating the Western sanctions regime” against Russia.
Yao Dawei/Xinhua/AP
In the weeks following the Kremlin’s September decree to mobilize army reservists, nearly 300,000 Russians, mostly military-aged men, poured into Kazakhstan. The Kazakh government reported in late October that it had received about 200,000 applications for individual work permits from foreigners since the Russian mobilization began.
That potentially reverses a long-term demographic trend that has seen members of Kazakhstan’s Russian minority gradually emigrate back to Russia, reducing the proportion from around 40% to 15% over about three decades. Experts say no one is sure how the newcomers may fit in, how long most of them will stay, or what the sociological consequences might be.
Thousands of Russian companies are registered in Kazakhstan – a long-standing trading partner of Russia – but the numbers have grown by around 40% since the beginning of the war. Businesses are scrambling to establish a base from which they can escape the scorching effects of Western sanctions while maintaining their presence in the Russian market.
Analysts say this is a huge boon for Kazakhstan, and to a lesser extent Uzbekistan, but one which has the effect of tying their economies more tightly to that of Russia. It also potentially complicates relations with the United States, which cannot be pleased to see a Kazakhstan-sized hole in the anti-Russia sanctions regime.
“The world order is changing”
Another factor that effectively binds the countries of Central Asia to Moscow is the threat of instability in nearby Afghanistan. Kazakhstan and its former-Soviet neighbors are deeply dependent on Russian security protection, and most are bound organizationally into the Collective Security Treaty Organization military alliance and the economics-oriented Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which includes China and India.
“It’s just a reality that the world order is changing, but Kazakhstan remains under the influence of Russia and China, and this influence is much stronger than that of Europe or the U.S.,” says Mr. Chebotaryov. “In fact, the American influence around here has reduced a lot since they left Afghanistan.”
The newly elected Mr. Tokayev must navigate this troubled landscape as he unleashes his plans to modernize Kazakhstan through what he has described as sweeping constitutional changes to create a more inclusive and democratic country. It’s being watched very closely in Moscow.
“Wasn’t it [Alexis] de Tocqueville who said, ‘The most dangerous moment for any system is when it begins reforming itself’?” says Mr. Kortunov. “Kazakhstan is a very complex society, ethnically diverse, big regional differences, a lot of different clans. Any transition is bound to be unpredictable and difficult. Regional stability will be deeply impacted by how it proceeds. This election was just a beginning, not an end.”