Since former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro lost a bid to hold on to power in a razor-thin October 2022 runoff, analysts have warned that Brazil could face something similar to the Jan. 6 insurrection in the United States.

Much like former President Donald Trump, Mr. Bolsonaro spent years sowing unfounded doubts about Brazil’s electronic voting system, and never explicitly recognized his election loss. For weeks after, small groups of pro-Bolsonaro protesters surrounded military buildings across the country, insisting the election was invalid. 

On Sunday, thousands of his supporters attacked Brazil’s capital – an event seen as the gravest threat to Brazilian institutions since its return to democracy in the 1980s. But unlike the U.S. two years ago, Brazil has already sworn in its new president. 

The swift reaction of the federal government, from condemning the attacks to suspending the pro-Bolsonaro governor of Brasília for 90 days while an investigation takes place into security failings in the capital, sends a clear message that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won’t let the attacks on democracy slide. In some ways, the aftermath shows that Brazil’s democracy itself may be sturdier than previously understood.

“This gives the government a real leg to stand on in governing the next few days, weeks, and months ahead,” says Andre Pagliarini, Brazil expert at Hampden-Sydney College in Virginia. 

Windows smashed, the halls of Congress destroyed, and hundreds of furious citizens storming the country’s capital to fight what they say was a stolen presidential election: This might seem a recap of the Jan. 6 insurrection in the United States. Instead, almost exactly two years later, Brazil witnessed an uncannily similar event over the weekend, throwing the stability of its democracy into question and presenting tall hurdles for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva just one week into his new term.

For months, political analysts have warned that Brazil could face something similar to Jan. 6. Much like former President Donald Trump, former Brazilian leader Jair Bolsonaro spent years sowing unfounded doubts about Brazil’s electronic voting system. Mr. Bolsonaro never explicitly recognized his loss in a razor-thin October 2022 presidential runoff; following his loss, highways were blocked, and for weeks military buildings across the country were surrounded by small groups of pro-Bolsonaro protesters insisting the election was invalid.

Now Brazil has been violently jolted by the realities of its deeply divided populace. Sunday’s attack is seen as the gravest threat to Brazilian institutions since its return to democracy in the 1980s, and the country faces the daunting question of how to move forward from here.

But unlike the U.S. two years ago, Brazil has already sworn in its new president. And the swift reaction of the federal government, from condemning the attacks to suspending the pro-Bolsonaro governor of Brasília for 90 days while an investigation takes place into security failings in the capital, sends a clear message that President Lula won’t let the destruction and attacks on democracy slide. In some ways, the aftermath shows that Brazil’s democracy itself may be sturdier than previously understood.

“Brazil’s democracy has proven it’s stronger than people thought,” says Thomas Trebat, director of Columbia University’s Global Center in Rio de Janeiro, who points to a stable tradition of free press, an independent Congress and Supreme Court, and a vibrant civil society. “You can see the repudiation of the rioters; you can see the strength of those institutions. But it’s not invulnerable, and I think the government is going to have to be very vigilant,” he says, underscoring Brazil’s history of military dictatorships.