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Venezuela’s Maduro marks a decade in power: Can civil society weather more?

After a decade in power, Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro has proved his staying power – not via the charisma or broad social spending that defined the popularity of his predecessor Hugo Chávez, but by leaning into authoritarian governing tools like repression and censorship.

His approach is on full display as Venezuela pushes a proposal experts say could shatter the remaining vestiges of democratic society by targeting nongovernmental organizations and independent media.

Why We Wrote This

Venezuela is proposing to codify crackdowns on freedom of expression in the lead-up to a presidential vote. Will determination be enough to keep civil society intact?

NGOs “are conspiring against the country,” said Diosdado Cabello, vice president of the ruling party.

The timing of the push isn’t surprising to José Ignacio Hernandez, a law professor at the Central University of Venezuela. Through this law, “Maduro is making sure to create an obstacle for the organization of [presidential] primaries,” he says.

“Maduro does not need a special law to silence NGOs. … He can exercise repression,” whenever he pleases, Mr. Hernandez says. What he seeks is to halt competition in the vote in a way that comes off as legitimate under the law. For that, this crackdown on NGOs – which are “key to accountability” – will be vital, he says.

But members of civil society say they won’t go quietly, providing support for Venezuelans from outside the country and using nontraditional methods to disseminate human rights information.

Ten years ago, Venezuela underwent a seismic shift with the death of President Hugo Chávez. His hand-picked successor, Nicolás Maduro, has successfully held on to power, despite the tanking economy, jaw-dropping inflation, and international sanctions over human rights violations that have defined the past decade in Venezuela.

Mr. Maduro, a former bus driver and union organizer who lacks the charisma of his predecessor, has endured in large part by leaning into repressing and censoring opponents, experts say. Now his government is pushing a proposal that could shutter the remaining vestiges of democratic society in the lead-up to a 2024 presidential vote.

The proposed law, which passed the first of two rounds in the National Assembly in late January, targets nongovernmental organizations and independent media outlets. Despite serious threats, NGOs are pushing back. From exchanging tactics with organizations that have faced similar repression in places like Nicaragua and Cuba, to providing support for Venezuelans from outside the country’s borders, to using nontraditional methods like songs to disseminate vital information to the public, civil society is adapting and sending a message to the Maduro government that they won’t go quietly.

Why We Wrote This

Venezuela is proposing to codify crackdowns on freedom of expression in the lead-up to a presidential vote. Will determination be enough to keep civil society intact?

“Authoritarian governments see the presence of scrutiny as a threat to their own existence,” says Marta Valiñas, chair of the United Nations Fact-Finding Mission on Venezuela. In a 2022 U.N. report, her team documented how dissenting voices in Venezuela face arbitrary detentions, threats, physical and verbal aggression, and even torture.

“Civil society is crucial for democratic and civic dialogue,” Ms. Valiñas says, which is why, she believes, Mr. Maduro is once again cracking down.

Jose Luis Gonzalez/Reuters

Jesús Garcia, a migrant from Venezuela, queues outside the National Institute of Migration to request a permit to be able to travel to another point of entry to the United States, in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, Feb. 22, 2023. One in five Venezuelans have migrated or sought asylum abroad over the past decade since Nicolás Maduro became president and global oil prices fell, hitting Venezuela’s economy hard.

“Much, much, much worse”

Over the past decade, 1 in 5 Venezuelans have migrated or sought asylum abroad. Political parties have been obliterated, opposition politicians have been imprisoned or expelled from the Andean nation, independent media have been shuttered and harassed, and the judicial system has been gutted, bending to the will of the president and his allies.

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