As Turkey goes to the polls on Sunday to elect a president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has never looked so vulnerable. And his fate may well hinge on citizens who were not born when he first took office in 2003 – first-time voters who make up 8% of the electorate.
The president is counting on his base – conservative, religious, and predominantly rural – but with polls suggesting a neck-and-neck race against a diverse six-party opposition coalition, that may not be enough.
Why We Wrote This
In elections Sunday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan faces his stiffest-ever challenge. Young voters, many of whom weren’t born when he first took office, hold his fate in their hands.
That coalition includes Islamists, secular politicians, nationalists, and ethnic Kurds, a heterogeneous mix that appeals to young people, says Nevzat Taşcı, a youth organizer. “The younger generation has more empathy with those who are different from them,” he argues. “They are not as polarized and have more solidarity than the older generation.”
President Erdoğan’s increasingly autocratic style, and his crackdown on critics and opponents, are not calculated to appeal to young people, but he is trying to boost his image among first-time voters by promising free internet connections and lower mobile phone fees.
With the outcome of the election on a knife edge, “every vote counts,” says an analyst.
It is not often in Turkey that you see a balding, middle-aged man dancing energetically on a bus to rap, pumping his fists.
But that is the way that Muharrem İnce, a prominent opposition candidate in Sunday’s presidential election until he dropped out of the race on Thursday, chose to woo the youth vote, sharing the video of his exertions on social media.
Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the only man with a chance of beating sitting president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, is a septuagenarian and has found a less physically demanding way of appealing to first-time voters: He is often to be seen in videos and at rallies making a heart with his hands.
Why We Wrote This
In elections Sunday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan faces his stiffest-ever challenge. Young voters, many of whom weren’t born when he first took office, hold his fate in their hands.
The president himself has not opted for such tactics. But he has made promises specifically designed to appeal to young voters, such as free internet access and lower taxes on mobile phone use.
First-time voters, many of them undecided, make up 8% of the Turkish electorate, and with the outcome of the election on a knife edge, “every vote counts,” says Ömer Özkizilcik, an independent political analyst.
Polls vary in their predictions of which way young voters – who have known no other Turkish leader but Mr. Erdoğan – will lean. But Nevzat Taşcı, who heads a private initiative to boost young people’s participation in politics, says the six-party opposition coalition led by Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu is winning most of the youth vote.
That coalition includes Islamists, secular politicians, nationalists, and ethnic Kurds, a heterogeneous mix that appeals to young people, says Mr. Taşcı. “The younger generation has more empathy with those who are different from them,” he argues. “They are not as polarized and have more solidarity than the older generation.”
Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu, while not the most charismatic of candidates, “managed to gather so many different people with so many opinions with a common purpose. It’s amazing to bring people together in our polarized country,” says Arman Unal, a first-time voter and student at Bosphorus University who hopes a new government would improve freedom of speech and repair the economy.
Yet Mr. Erdoğan enjoys support from young people who do not trust a fragmented opposition whose members discriminated against religious conservatives in the past. They are members of the pious generation the president had promised to raise.
Irem Nur Keskin, a recent university graduate whose degree in public relations has not yet secured her a job, still has faith in the government. “I’m very happy to vote for our president,” she says. “We have some problems in our country, but I believe these problems will be solved soon, and many opportunities will arise for young people.”
Centennial elections
Sunday’s presidential and parliamentary elections occur in a year that marks 100 years since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, Turkey’s founder, formed a republic in 1923 from the remnants of the Ottoman Empire and built a secular democracy.
Critics say Mr. Erdoğan has undermined that system, by concentrating power in the presidency rather than in parliament and officially promoting conservative religious values.
“Without change” at the elections, “autocracy will persist,” says Aydin Gunduz, an expert in comparative politics at TOBB University of Economics and Technology in the capital, Ankara. “The present trend is towards autocracy, not democracy … but there is potential for great change.”
The elections are also widely seen as an international bellwether, he adds, given the proliferation of populist leaders worldwide. “Turkey can offer insights for all cases of autocracy across the globe,” Dr. Gunduz suggests.
Polls show Mr. Erdoğan and Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu are neck and neck; if neither presidential candidate secures 50% of the vote on Sunday, they will compete in a runoff. The campaign mood has been tense but jubilant with packed campaign rallies and events on the streets across the country featuring music, dancing, and impassioned speeches. Voting is mandatory and polls suggest that 90% of first-time voters, including 240,000 Syrian refugees who have been granted citizenship, will turn out.
Even if Mr. Erdoğan ends up losing, he and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) supporters may retain control of parliament, though that body was stripped of many of its powers by a widely criticized 2017 constitutional referendum that created a strong executive presidency.
“Erdoğan uses the democratic apparatus to garner more power. Everything Erdoğan has done has been a manipulation of democratic rules,” says Elmira Bayrasli, director of the Globalization and International Affairs program at Bard College in New York.
Özge Sebzeci
Boom to bust
Mr. Erdoğan’s transformation from a working class politician to strongman is ironic, says Ms. Bayrasli, who once had high hopes for the president.
“I believe that he did get into politics with genuine concern for working class Turks,” she says. “He did improve the economy and made it possible to embrace religion and erase divisions. But because he became a leader of a country that had weak institutions and rule of law, the power became more important than the people.”
Since Mr. Erdoğan first became prime minister 20 years ago, when many first-time voters were not yet born, Turkey’s economy has grown more than threefold, and average per capita income has also nearly tripled.
“First-time voters have TV sets, cars, and phones,” points out Ms. Bayrasli. “They don’t remember Turkey without Erdoğan, and that’s dangerous” for him since they never knew their country before its development boom.
All the more so now that the president’s unorthodox interest rate policies have crashed the value of the Turkish currency and sparked annual inflation now running at 44%, according to official figures, making life difficult for everyone, including young voters.
“I used to be able to buy tea, baklava, and maybe a coffee for three liras,” says Demir Karabacak, head of an opposition youth group in Istanbul. “Today I can’t even buy a coffee for that.”
Also alarming young voters is the 20% unemployment that afflicts the 18-25 age group, as the country’s economic crisis saps its ability to create jobs. “Unemployment could be a motivator to vote against the government if inflation is not dropping,” predicts Dr. Gunduz.
Özge Sebzeci
Mr. Erdoğan’s assault on freedoms, firing or jailing critics and opponents, raises more hackles among young people than it does among many older voters, and the recent earthquake, in which 54,000 people died, revealed corruption and collusion between government authorities and construction firms that sidestepped safety regulations.
“The discrepancy between the youth vote and the average Turkish voter may be of the utmost importance,” suggests Mr. Özkizilcik, the analyst.
Among Mr. Erdoğan’s first-time voter base are the thousands of Syrian refugees who have become Turkish citizens. Although the president has campaigned on an anti-refugee platform just as virulent as the opposition’s xenophobic rhetoric, his track record on the issue is positive, says Usama, a humanitarian worker of Syrian origin who asked to use only his first name.
“The opposition is calling for us to be expelled,” Usama says from Gaziantep, a southeastern city with a large Syrian population. “The AKP has been welcoming to refugees and vulnerable people.”
Belma Daldal, a graphic designer, recently became a Turkish citizen through marriage and will be voting in Turkey for the first time on Sunday. Ms. Daldal, originally from Bosnia, says the economic crisis and rent hikes are hurting her family in Istanbul.
“The ruling party has its long list of glorious achievements, but as history has shown, every rise has its fall, and it would be better to step down graciously,” Ms. Daldal says.
“I am not impressed by the [opposition] coalition’s plan, nor the main candidate, and I wish there were stronger options with a more charismatic leader,” she says. “But I am very reluctantly casting my vote for change.”