When Turkey went to the polls last Sunday, the opposition thought it had a fighting chance of unseating President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, whose slide toward authoritarianism has alarmed Western observers.
In the event, Mr. Erdoğan came out on top, but without 50% of the vote, which means there will be a runoff on May 28. Now electoral math gives him a clear advantage.
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Opponents of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan are poorly placed to unseat him in the second round of elections, but they are not giving up hope.
The results left many opposition supporters despondent, but once they got over their disappointment, they rallied and looked for reasons to stay hopeful. Some expect supporters of a nationalist third party to vote against Mr. Erdoğan in the runoff, though that seems unlikely.
Others feel they have no choice but to be hopeful and organize for the second round, so fearful are they of the consequences of a victory for Mr. Erdoğan. Over the past decade, he has jailed critics, stifled the media, and banned anti-government protests in the name of national security.
For them, these elections are existential. “Right now, we are no longer fighting for an ideology, but for freedom, equality, our own future and life, where our fundamental rights are protected,” says Seda Gökçe, a documentary film producer.
Havva Nur Şenel, a law student, was up all night last Sunday, nervously following Turkey’s election results.
As she followed the live coverage on TV with her father, the 21-year-old first-time voter argued with him, challenging his support for the government. Phone in hand, she texted continuously with her politically like-minded friends as they boosted each other’s confidence that the opposition would win and their future would be bright.
Around 3 a.m. on Monday, Ms. Şenel realized it was not to be. Neither of the leading presidential candidates had won 50% of the vote, meaning there would be a runoff on May 28.
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Opponents of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan are poorly placed to unseat him in the second round of elections, but they are not giving up hope.
She was disappointed. But she was also relieved that incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had not won an outright victory.
“Compared to previous elections, we [the opposition] were successful,” she says. “We are happy that it has gone to a runoff. I knew it would be difficult to win in the first round.”
Mr. Erdoğan has won every national election he has contested since 2002, first for the post of prime minister and in 2018 for the presidency. Never has his lead been so narrow as it was on Sunday: 49.5% of the vote, against 44.9% for opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.
But with expectations high that supporters of a far-right third-party candidate who won 5.3% of the vote will throw their votes to Mr. Erdoğan in the runoff, the picture looks bleak for the opposition.
Licking wounds, but clinging to hope
At home, and internationally, observers have described this year’s presidential elections in Turkey as the most important anywhere, with implications for other democracies risking a slide towards more authoritarianism.
Opposition voters are licking their wounds and figuring out how to cope with their disappointment before they cast a ballot again. Many view this election as existential, their last chance to preserve their receding freedom of expression and to restore a battered economy.
“Right now, we are no longer fighting for an ideology, but for freedom, equality, our own future and life, where our fundamental rights are protected,” declares Seda Gökçe, a documentary film producer.
Ms. Gökçe says she went silent immediately after she heard the election results. “I wanted to withdraw, stay away from the news, cut off my communication with people as much as possible, and digest that disappointment,” she says.
But she is going to vote again in the runoff, even though she harbors little hope for change.
Supporters of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) believe only President Erdoğan will protect Turkey’s national security and the religious family values on which he has built much of his success.
The country’s divided electorate is celebrating 100 years as a democratic republic with a secular constitution that stipulates the separation of religion and state.
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“If Erdoğan wins again, and he might … things will go in a negative direction,” says Erkan Saka, a media expert at Istanbul’s Bilgi University. Democracy will decline further, he fears.
Over the past decade, President Erdoğan has jailed critics, stifled the media, and banned anti-government protests in the name of national security.
“I don’t see that there will be a massive crackdown because that already happened several times. There’s nothing much to crack down on,” says Dr. Saka. “And I’m expecting a worse economic situation.”
Though opposition voters were initially demoralized, Dr. Saka says, their fear of the consequences of an Erdoğan victory has spurred them to renewed efforts. “The coming days are important. How the opposition parties are dealing and managing this campaign is very critical,” he says.
A civil discussion
Far-right nationalist Sinan Oğan, the third presidential candidate and potential kingmaker, surprised pollsters by taking 5.3% of last Sunday’s vote.
His electorate is more likely to vote for Mr. Erdoğan in the second round because his religious and ultra-nationalist outlook resembles the president’s stance, says Valeria Giannotta, an Ankara-based political analyst at the European Institute for Eurasian Dialogue, a think tank. “It’s very difficult to beat Erdoğan,” she says.
Ms. Şenel, the law student, disagrees, confident that Oğan voters will switch to Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu because they share his belief in the nationalist vision of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, modern Turkey’s founder.
Özge Sebzeci/Special to The Christian Science Monitor
Strolling along the Istanbul waterfront earlier this week with her friend Ms. Şenel, nursing student Nafise Aksoy says she has to live with her parents because inflation has pushed apartment rents beyond her reach. Nor does she find it easy to contemplate the consequences of Mr. Erdoğan winning another five-year period in office.
“I can’t even think about Erdoğan winning again. The stakes are too high. I was really down at first but I’m hopeful now,” she says, if only because she has no other choice.
Sitting on a bench nearby overlooking the Bosporus, Soydan Çetin, an architect, says the political system has become meaningless for him since Sunday. “I feel like everything is fake,” he says. But he will still be going to the polls for the runoff, just in case.
Mr. Çetin says he might even leave Turkey if Mr. Erdoğan wins. “I like my country, but with Erdoğan, we’re headed for fascism,” he fears.
A stranger sitting next to him on the bench overhears that comment and disagrees. “Erdoğan keeps his promises,” he interjects.
Mr. Çetin and the stranger, who turns out to be a middle-aged banker, have a civil discussion about the political situation, then laugh as they agree to disagree.
Despite their gloom, opposition voters are galvanizing each other into action.
Duygu Özünal, an industrial engineer who volunteered as an election monitor in a pro-government district for the first round of elections, says she is trying to avoid negativity.
“I think my biggest fear is despair because when there is no hope, you kind of give up. However, if Erdoğan wins, the future of our society, the problems we are experiencing right now, the language of violence … really frighten me,” she says.
Ms. Özünal says she’s anxious, but she’s putting her nervous energy into organizing for the second round with her circle of volunteer election workers.
“I am still hopeful now,” she says, “because we are a substantial crowd who want to take care of our future, and there are many young people among us. I think that is very important.”