Less than a week before Iowa Republicans will kick off their party’s nominating contests, the Hawkeye State has seemed unusually quiet.
Former President Donald Trump leads both Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley by an almost unprecedented 30 percentage points in recent polls. In some ways, the biggest drama this week has come from the weather – which has caused the cancellation of several events and is forecast to hit record cold temperatures on caucus night. Many GOP voters and politicos seem largely resigned to the idea that an upset looks improbable, if not impossible.
Why We Wrote This
Donald Trump’s historic lead is the dominant narrative in the GOP presidential race. But Iowa caucuses are an unpredictable process, and even strong second-place finishers can gain momentum there.
Still, what often matters most in politics is outperforming expectations. If either Mr. DeSantis or Ms. Haley were to surge to a surprisingly strong second-place finish, that would create a new dynamic heading into the New Hampshire primary. Mr. Trump’s team, by contrast, is aiming for a display of dominance that would effectively eliminate the competition.
At a recent event for Mr. DeSantis at a sports bar in Grimes, some supporters were holding out hope.
“Look at this crowd,” says Wyatt Landuyt-Krueger, a nonprofit employee from Cedar Rapids. “I absolutely think DeSantis can win Iowa.”
When it came time for questions at a recent campaign event for Ron DeSantis at an Iowa sports bar, one supporter stood up instead to offer the Florida governor some advice.
“You need to stay in this through the convention, because the first person might be in jail,” the man, a precinct captain, told Mr. DeSantis to cheers of “That’s right!” from the crowd in Grimes. “People win Iowa and do not become president, and people lose Iowa and do become president.”
It’s true that Iowa, whose first-in-the-nation caucuses will kick off the Republican nominating contest in less than a week, hasn’t backed the eventual GOP nominee since 2000. But the fact that Mr. DeSantis’ supporters are already urging their candidate not to drop out speaks to the unusual nature of this year’s primary.
Why We Wrote This
Donald Trump’s historic lead is the dominant narrative in the GOP presidential race. But Iowa caucuses are an unpredictable process, and even strong second-place finishers can gain momentum there.
For months, former President Donald Trump has been dominating the race here, running ahead of both Mr. DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley by an almost unprecedented 30 percentage points in recent polls. In some ways, the biggest drama this week has come from the weather – which has caused the cancellation of several candidate events and is forecast to hit record cold temperatures on caucus night. Many GOP voters and politicos seem largely resigned to the idea that an upset on Monday looks improbable, if not impossible.
Still, what often matters most in politics is outperforming expectations. If either Mr. DeSantis or Ms. Haley were to surge to a surprisingly strong second-place finish, that would create a new dynamic heading into the New Hampshire primary. Mr. Trump’s team, by contrast, is aiming to blow past the 50% margin, say several Republican operatives, putting him on a glide path to the nomination. No candidate has ever won Iowa by more than 12 points.
“The [non-Trump] campaigns see this caucus as the opening bout of a heavyweight fight,” says Jimmy Centers, a Republican strategist in Iowa and former communications director for Terry Branstad during his Iowa governorship. “Trump’s team sees it as the opportunity to deliver a knockout punch and end it.”
A light campaign schedule
Hours before Mr. Trump was set to take the stage on Saturday, the school gym in Clinton, a town bordering Illinois on the banks of the Mississippi River, had reached capacity. Local law enforcement estimated 1,200 people were packed tightly into the rows of bleachers, with 1,000 more turned away at the door. Despite Mr. Trump running several hours behind schedule, few rallygoers left early.
“We’re going to win by a lot,” Mr. Trump told the cheering crowd as snow started to fall outside. “You got to get out. Because the more we win by – we’re shooting for November because we have to send a message: We can’t be beaten.”
The event was one of four Mr. Trump held last weekend, with no additional campaign stops planned until this weekend. The former president has made notably few appearances here, in a state where retail politicking is seen as de rigeuer. On Tuesday, he was preparing to appear in a Washington courtroom instead.
Mr. DeSantis and Ms. Haley, too, have kept relatively light schedules for a campaign in its final days. Mr. DeSantis was back in Florida for a few days this week, and Ms. Haley cancelled her single Monday event, as winter storm warnings descended on the state. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, polling in the single digits, has kept a relentless campaign schedule, but on Tuesday morning he also had to cancel events due to the snow.
Despite that, Iowa Republican Party Chairman Jeff Kaufmann says the “organizational strength” of the campaigns this year is unprecedented.
“At least two of them have Ted Cruz-like organizations ready to roll,” says Mr. Kaufmann, referring to the Texas senator who won the GOP caucus here in 2016 thanks to a superior ground game, beating Mr. Trump. Mr. Kaufmann declined to name which two campaigns he was referring to, but the Trump campaign’s grassroots operation has been well acknowledged this cycle.
“There was no Trump ground game in 2016,” says Doug Gross, a former Republican gubernatorial candidate in Iowa who served as chief of staff to former Governor Branstad. “He would fly in, and the masses turned out [to see him]. But those who organized, like Cruz, were able to nudge him out. So he learned from that.”
In Clinton, the crowd was dotted with white baseball caps emblazoned with “Trump Caucus Captain” in gold. One belonged to Dave Fisher, a truck driver and city council member from a small town west of Cedar Rapids, who received an email from the campaign a few months ago asking if he planned to caucus for the former president. “The next thing you know,” says Mr. Fisher, he was on a video call with a hundred other caucus captains and Mr. Trump himself.
Story Hinckley/The Christian Science Monitor
“My job is to identify people who are going to caucus in my area and bring them out on caucus night,” says Mr. Fisher, adding that he will also give a short speech in support of Mr. Trump on caucus night.
Numiva Van Zee, a Trump caucus captain from Comanche, says she was given a list of potential Trump supporters to contact. She was told to make sure she brings 10 people with her on caucus night who will support Mr. Trump.
Before Mr. Trump took the stage in Clinton, an animated video walked rallygoers through every step of the caucus process, while a massive QR Code above the stage took voters to their precinct locations. State Rep. Bobby Kaufmann, the party chair’s son, asked the crowd to raise their hands if they would be caucusing for the first time next week. Roughly one-quarter raised their hands.
Haley and DeSantis seeking a foothold
Asking her audiences that same question at campaign events across the state, Nikki Haley has gotten similar responses.
“I’d be surprised if the results aren’t tighter than what the polls show,” says Tom Miller, waiting to see Ms. Haley in North Liberty on Saturday. Mr. Miller voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, but says he’d back Ms. Haley over President Biden if she ends up as the Republican nominee. Independent, anti-Trump Republican, and even formerly Democratic voters like Mr. Miller are a core constituency for Ms. Haley – which is why she has focused so much more on the next nominating contest in New Hampshire. In the Granite State, which allows independents to vote in the GOP primary, some polls now show her just a few points behind the former president.
“Nikki has had the most success in catching Trump,” says Jeff Wessel, a Cedar Rapids voter sitting beside Mr. Miller, who voted twice for Mr. Trump but now says the former president carries “too much baggage.”
Ms. Haley’s ability to win over varied voters like Mr. Miller and Mr. Wessel, two strangers sitting in the front row at her event, is one of the central arguments for her campaign.
Story Hinckley/The Christian Science Monitor
“Rightly or wrongly, chaos follows him,” Ms. Haley tells the crowd packed into a North Liberty brewery, speaking of Mr. Trump. “We can’t have a country in disarray and a world on fire and go through four more years of chaos, because we won’t survive it.”
Iowa Republicans supporting Mr. DeSantis offer a similar rationale for backing a non-Trump candidate.
“Trump is getting old,” says Connie Lendt, a precinct captain for Mr. DeSantis from Woodward, who voted twice for Mr. Trump. “They’ve tried to impeach him every time he’s been in office. The Democrats won’t give it up, and I want a president who will follow through.”
“Look at this crowd. I absolutely think DeSantis can win Iowa,” says Wyatt Landuyt-Krueger, a DeSantis supporter who works with a nonprofit in Cedar Rapids and voted for Mr. Biden in 2020.
Left unsaid is what will happen if he doesn’t. Mr. DeSantis essentially staked his campaign on the Hawkeye State, visiting all 99 counties and earning the endorsement of GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds.
He might be able to have a successful caucus night without winning outright, say strategists. But at a minimum, he needs to come in second and shrink the gap with Mr. Trump – or it might be hard for him to justify staying in the race, despite the plea from that supporter in Grimes.
“DeSantis was the 500-pound gorilla alternative in the room for much of last winter and spring until he got into the race, and his stumbles have been well documented,” says Mr. Centers. “By and large, the party is still the party of Trump – so you better be offering a compelling reason as to why Republican voters should be switching horses midstream.”