Taiwan will pick a new president this weekend. The electorate’s goal? To maintain the status quo on the island – one of Asia’s most vibrant democracies – amid escalating pressure from China, a task that requires deftly managing relations across the Taiwan Strait.
“Voters are asking … who will preserve Taiwan’s autonomy, and who will preserve the peace,” says Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific Program.
Why We Wrote This
At a key juncture, Taiwan’s voters will weigh in on who is best qualified to navigate geopolitical tensions and preserve the self-governing island’s autonomy.
All candidates have pledged to avert conflict, and say they are open to dialogue with China. Indeed, candidates’ positions on Taiwan-mainland China relations are far more similar than in past decades, reflecting the popular consensus on the issue.
Leading the polls is Vice President Lai Ching-te, who stresses the need to strengthen relations with democratic allies in the West and Asia. But another strong contender is Hou Yu-ih, representing the Kuomintang, or the Nationalist Party, which is generally considered more pro-Beijing.
Mr. Hou has cast this election as a stark choice between war and peace – a message that Beijing is amplifying and could resonate with voters.
“I would not be astonished if Hou wins – he is narrowing the gap,” says Ms. Glaser. And if Dr. Lai is victorious, his party may lose its majority in Taiwan’s parliament, complicating the administration’s ability to advance its agenda.
Taiwan will pick a new president this weekend – a choice centered on which candidate voters believe can best protect the island’s autonomy amid escalating pressure from China, which claims Taiwan as its territory.
Taiwan’s electorate overwhelmingly seeks to maintain the status quo on the island – one of Asia’s most vibrant democracies – a task that requires deftly managing relations across the Taiwan Strait. In addition to choosing president and vice president, voters will elect a new national legislature.
“Clearly, there are growing concerns in Taiwan about the possibility of military conflict, but voters are asking who is the best candidate, who will preserve Taiwan’s autonomy, and who will preserve the peace,” says Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.
Why We Wrote This
At a key juncture, Taiwan’s voters will weigh in on who is best qualified to navigate geopolitical tensions and preserve the self-governing island’s autonomy.
China has vowed to unite mainland China with Taiwan, by force if necessary, and has ramped up the activity of military aircraft, ships, drones, and recently balloons around the island, which at the closest point lies about 80 miles from the mainland across the Taiwan Strait.
All three of Taiwan’s presidential candidates have pledged to defend the island and avert conflict, and say they are open to dialogue with China. Indeed, the candidates’ positions on Taiwan-mainland China relations are far more similar than in past decades – a reflection of the popular consensus on the issue.
“They all talk about the need to protect Taiwan’s democracy, the need to build up Taiwan’s defense,” says Chong Ja Ian, associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore. “The difference is not in broad principles, but in execution.”
Top candidates
Leading in the polls is Lai Ching-te, the candidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and Taiwan’s vice president. A win by Dr. Lai, a former doctor and seasoned politician, would mark a first for Taiwan – no political party has retained the presidency for three successive terms since democratic elections for the office began in 1996. President Tsai Ing-wen is stepping down after serving the maximum of two four-year terms.
“I will boost our democracy as well as our defense capabilities and economic security,” Dr. Lai said during a recent presidential debate.
In the view of Dr. Lai and the DPP, Taiwan is already de facto independent, so no formal declaration of independence is necessary. Dr. Lai also stresses the need to strengthen relations with Taiwan’s democratic allies in the West and Asia.
“The DPP wants to keep China at arm’s length,” says Nathan Batto, a research fellow at the Election Study Center, National Chengchi University in Taipei. “They are not trying to disengage with China … but they are not trying to build new and closer ties.”
Another strong contender, representing the Kuomintang (KMT), or the Nationalist Party, is Hou Yu-ih, a former police officer who has been the mayor of New Taipei City since 2018. Mr. Hou is the candidate favored by Beijing. He opposes independence for Taiwan and maintains the longstanding KMT stance that there is “one China,” albeit defined differently by Beijing and Taipei. He favors closer economic and social interaction between mainland China and Taiwan.
The KMT and Mr. Hou have cast this election as a stark choice between war and peace – a message that Beijing is amplifying. That warning could resonate with voters because “there is more of a credible threat now” from China, says Dr. Batto, an associate research fellow at the Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.
KMT leaders moved to Taiwan from mainland China in 1949 after losing a civil war against China’s communist forces, and historically the KMT has backed unification with China. But in recent decades, the waning popularity of this position – as people in Taiwan increasingly identify as Taiwanese, not Chinese – has hurt the KMT. Fewer than 10% of people in Taiwan support unification, polls show. Mr. Hou does not endorse Beijing’s preferred “one country, two systems” formula for unification. In the debate, Mr. Hou said he supports “freedom and democracy” for Taiwan.
Narrowing the gap
A third candidate, Ko Wen-je, represents the Taiwan People’s Party, which he founded in 2019 as an alternative to the KMT and DPP. Dr. Ko, a former physician who was mayor of Taipei from 2014 to 2022, is a populist politician and advocate for change with appeal especially among young people. He promises to govern better and fight corruption. On China, he says he will take a middle road, charting a position between the KMT and DPP, although he has not yet articulated details of his plan.
Chiang Ying-ying/AP
The three candidates also share many similar domestic policy priorities – from increasing public housing to spending more on public health – but the KMT and DPP disagree on Taiwan’s use of nuclear energy, with the KMT supporting it and the DPP opposing it.
Based on the latest polling, Dr. Lai is slightly favored to win Saturday’s election, analysts say. But a victory by Mr. Hou can’t be ruled out, they say. Two scenarios could contribute to give Mr. Hou an edge: low DPP turnout, and the dimming prospects for Dr. Ko, evident in the polls, which could lead some of his supporters to back Mr. Hou instead.
“I would say Lai would eke out a victory, but I would not be astonished if Hou wins – he is narrowing the gap,” says Ms. Glaser, from the German Marshall Fund. “Is the DPP able to energize its base to get people to come out and vote?” And even if Dr. Lai does win, the DPP may lose its majority in Taiwan’s parliament, the Legislative Yuan, complicating a Lai administration’s ability to advance its agenda, she says.
The election is “too close to call,” says Scott Kennedy, a China expert and senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.