For incumbent U.S. presidents, the first debate of the general election campaign is often a flop. After four years in a deferential White House bubble, shielded from any real primary competition to hone their debating skills, many incumbents come across as rusty and out of touch.
What makes Thursday’s debate so unusual is that both candidates may essentially be in the “incumbent” role. President Joe Biden, despite concerns about his age, faced only nominal opposition for the Democratic nomination. And former President Donald Trump handily dispatched a field of challengers for the Republican nomination, despite refusing to participate in any of the primary debates and holding relatively few in-person campaign events.
Why We Wrote This
President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will have different mandates on Thursday, strategists say. Mr. Biden will want to show vigor and stamina, while Mr. Trump will want to demonstrate he can be serious and statesmanlike.
As a result, when they walk into the CNN studio in Atlanta, both men will arguably be facing their first significant test of the campaign. With just one other debate on the schedule before November, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
“It’s very hard to stay sharp if you’re not constantly being challenged at something like this,” says Spencer Critchley, a communications strategist who advised former President Barack Obama’s 2008 and 2012 campaigns. “You can’t just think about it to stay good at it; you have to practice.”
For incumbent presidents, the first debate of the general election campaign is often a flop.
After four years in a deferential White House bubble, shielded from any real primary competition to hone their debating skills, many incumbents come across as rusty and out of touch. Past examples range from President Ronald Reagan’s rambling first debate performance against former Vice President Walter Mondale in 1984, to President Barack Obama’s lackluster first outing against former Gov. Mitt Romney in 2012, or even President Donald Trump’s overly aggressive first face-off against former Vice President Joe Biden in 2020.
What makes Thursday’s debate so unusual is that both candidates may essentially be in the “incumbent” role. President Biden, despite ongoing concerns from some Democrats about his age, faced only nominal opposition this year and had no difficulty amassing enough delegates to secure the Democratic nomination. And despite losing reelection four years ago, Mr. Trump never lost his status as the Republican Party’s leader. He handily dispatched a field of challengers for the GOP nomination, despite refusing to participate in any of the primary debates and holding relatively few in-person campaign events.
Why We Wrote This
President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will have different mandates on Thursday, strategists say. Mr. Biden will want to show vigor and stamina, while Mr. Trump will want to demonstrate he can be serious and statesmanlike.
As a result, when they walk into the CNN studio in Atlanta, both men will arguably be facing their first significant test of the campaign. The debate is notably early by historic standards – and with just one other debate on the schedule before November, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
“It’s very hard to stay sharp if you’re not constantly being challenged at something like this,” says Spencer Critchley, a communications strategist and media adviser to Mr. Obama’s 2008 and 2012 campaigns. “You can’t just think about it to stay good at it; you have to practice.”
Mr. Biden has been sequestered at Camp David since last Thursday, preparing with advisers. Mr. Trump’s approach to debate preparation has been less clear. But both campaigns have been trying to raise expectations for the other side, with Mr. Trump even suggesting, with zero evidence, that the president might take drugs to boost his performance.
Although Mr. Trump has held a small lead in most battleground states for much of the year, recent polls show the race has narrowed in the wake of the former president’s felony conviction in the New York hush money case, and is now a dead heat nationally. Indeed, the fact that the Trump campaign so quickly accepted the Biden campaign’s proposed timing and terms for this debate, strategists say, suggests both sides may be hoping for a reset.
“The fact that this debate is in June tells us how unusual this cycle is,” says Alan Schroeder, author of the book “Presidential Debates: Risky Business on the Campaign Trail.” Typically the first presidential debate comes in September or October, whereas this debate is occurring before either candidate has officially secured his party’s nomination. “This first debate has the chance to shake things up and start moving voters in one direction or the other.”
While a plurality of voters identify themselves as independents, polling suggests that the number of true independents who don’t lean one way or the other is actually in the single digits. But as Jordan Tama, a political expert at American University and a national security adviser to Mr. Obama’s 2008 campaign, pointed out in a call with reporters Tuesday, debates can be critical for this small population who “tips our elections.”
To try to tip this tiny pool of swing voters in their direction, Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump will have very different, if not opposite, mandates Thursday evening.
Given that the top issue dogging Mr. Biden’s reelection is his age – a recent New York Times/Siena College poll found that more than half of the voters who supported him in 2020 say he is “just too old” now to be an effective president – his priority will be demonstrating that he has the vigor and stamina for four more years. Mr. Trump, on the other hand, who was panned after his first 2020 debate with Mr. Biden for incessantly interrupting, will need to show undecided voters that he can be serious and statesmanlike.
“The No. 1 question for Biden is, ‘Is he up to the job?’ This debate is the best opportunity he’ll have to show that,” says David Kochel, a Republican who served as senior strategist for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s 2016 presidential campaign. “Trump needs to show that he can connect with people who aren’t just rally-goers,” by talking less about stolen elections and more about the price of groceries. “If he can stick to the main theme and repeat Biden’s failures, I think he probably has the easier job of the two of them.”
The 90-minute debate will be a stamina test for both men, the two oldest major-party candidates in U.S. history, who haven’t had to face one another in four years. Unlike in past debates, mics will be muted after a candidate’s allotted response time, preventing interruptions, and there will be no studio audience.
Given that success in debates often means exceeding expectations, the Trump campaign has pivoted in recent days from mocking Mr. Biden as feeble and incompetent to suggesting he will have a strong night. “I assume he’s going to be somebody that will be a worthy debater,” Mr. Trump said in a recent interview on the “All-In” podcast. Similarly, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, who is reportedly being considered as running mate for Mr. Trump, said on CNN over the weekend that Mr. Biden is able to “step up” when needed.
From the Democratic side, former Biden White House communications director Kate Bedingfield suggested on CNN last week that the muted mic rule may help Mr. Trump, who turned some voters off with the “angry, uncivil way” he conducted himself in past debates, talking over moderators and opponents. “I think the Donald Trump [who] is going to show up next week is going to be the most disciplined version of Donald Trump,” said Ms. Bedingfield. “He knows this is a big stage.”
Still, between the two men, it’s Mr. Biden who may have the most to lose, says Mr. Kochel, the Republican strategist. If the president has a bad moment, such as freezing up or mumbling something incomprehensible, the panic among Democrats will be “white hot,” he says.
“These debates are often a test of overcoming the negative perceptions that exist about you,” Mr. Schroeder adds. ”And let’s face it, they are both elderly men, and it’s hard to change how people perceive you. But that’s what they both have to do.”