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America’s political crisis and the war in Gaza are more intertwined than you might think

The very same day that Donald Trump was shot in an assassination attempt, another deadly military strike hit Gaza. The two sides disputed the cause and the consequences. Israel claimed a successful strike on a legitimate military target, Palestinians claimed large numbers of women and children among 90 dead. A brutal war showed no signs of abating.

The two events were separated by thousands of miles and widely different circumstances. But they are interlinked. Understanding why they are interlinked is crucial not just to the course of the United States or the war in Gaza, but to the faltering progress of global democracy. The lesson of this moment is only gathering in force. Understanding it begins with understanding how dramatically American politics has changed during the past 30 years.

In recent decades, politics in the United States has become a lens that is dramatically warping Americans’ views of one another. A study in the July 2018 issue of The Journal of Politics asked partisans to describe their political opponents. Democrats thought that nearly 40% of Republicans made more than $250,000 annually. The actual number is about 2%. Republicans, meanwhile, perceived that more than 30% of Democrats were lesbian, gay, transgender, or bisexual. The actual share is about 6%. Other examples fit the same trend.

Why We Wrote This

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The Donald Trump assassination attempt shows how political polarization in the United States is moving toward dehumanization. The war in Gaza shows where that leads.

In this way, politics has become a means, not to deal with reality, but to feed our own perspectives and prejudices. The most partisan Americans are playing defense against an opponent that, in important ways, does not exist outside their own heads.

America’s defining political trend

This has helped fuel the United States’ defining modern political trend: negative polarization. Negative polarization is not a support for one’s own side, it is a fear of the other. Negative polarization is all about “them” – stopping “them” from ruining the country.

From 1994 to 2022, the percentage of Republicans who said they have a very unfavorable view of Democrats rose from 21% to 62%, according to the Pew Research Center. Democrats who said they had a very unfavorable view of Republicans rose from 17% to 54%. You can see Pew’s chart here.

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