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Christian Colleges Face the Demographic Cliff

Christian families and philanthropists should demand that Christian colleges have a clear reason for their existence. In other words, they must be recognizably Christian and more in tune with Christian orthodoxy than the shifting contours of American culture.

In higher education, the demographic cliff of 2026 has been in the front windshield for a long time. What is the cliff? It’s the 18-year mark after the financial crisis of 2008 when it appeared the entire U.S. economy could be headed for a new Great Depression thanks to the cancerous impact of the subprime mortgage lending collapse. While the worst effects of the disaster were averted, it left a mark on the minds of many Americans. When people feel less secure and less optimistic about the future, they tend to have fewer children. That happened. Fertility declined in the wake of the crisis and hasn’t recovered since as the United States has moved below population replacement. 2026 is the year when it is believed higher education will begin to feel the inevitable effects of a smaller cohort of young people.

Enrollment in colleges has been down over the past decade. Those who follow the news in higher education know that small and private colleges seem to be closing with frequency. The latest to close was Eastern Nazarene University in Quincy, Mass. Just before that news hit, Cornerstone University in Grand Rapids, Mich., announced it was shutting down majors in the humanities. Institutions on more solid footing have nevertheless engaged in retirement buyouts and other reductions of the workforce.

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