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Moscow gets Iranian missiles: Might that actually help Kyiv?

Iran’s dispatch of hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia, bolstering Moscow’s relentless bombardment of Ukraine, has put the United States and its Western allies in a bind.

On the one hand, Washington is tempted to make Tehran pay a high price for ignoring the administration’s repeated warnings not to ship the missiles.

Why We Wrote This

Iran’s dispatch of ballistic missiles to Russia could backfire if the shipment provokes Washington into lifting its refusal to let Ukraine aim U.S.-made long-range missiles deep into Russian territory.

On the other hand, the U.S. needs Iranian cooperation to keep the lid on the Middle East and prevent the war in Gaza exploding into a full-scale regional conflict.

How to balance those two very different objectives in two very different wars?

It could be that Iran’s move will provoke Washington to allow Ukraine to aim U.S. and British long-range missiles deep into Russian territory, which it has so far been forbidden to do.

The Ukrainian government and a number of European NATO members have long wanted the Biden administration to lift the restriction.

They reason that Kyiv should be able to target the launch bases and airfields from which Russia launches its bomber planes and missiles, which are currently out of Ukrainian range.

If Mr. Biden does now decide to ease the restrictions, it may be that Iran’s arms shipment will turn out to have done its ally more harm than good.

Iran’s dispatch of hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia, bolstering Moscow’s relentless bombardment of Ukraine, has put the United States and its Western allies in a bind.

On the one hand, Washington is tempted to make Tehran pay a high price for ignoring the administration’s repeated warnings not to ship the missiles.

On the other hand, the U.S. needs Iranian cooperation to keep the lid on the Middle East and prevent the war in Gaza exploding into a full-scale regional conflict.

Why We Wrote This

Iran’s dispatch of ballistic missiles to Russia could backfire if the shipment provokes Washington into lifting its refusal to let Ukraine aim U.S.-made long-range missiles deep into Russian territory.

How to balance those two very different objectives in two very different wars?

The immediate Western reaction – a fresh round of sanctions against Tehran this week – was, in effect, the diplomatic equivalent of a motor-muscle response. What matters now is what comes next.

It is too early to gauge just how the Western allies, and Iran itself, will handle their diplomatic tug-of-war in the days ahead. But the tussle may clear the way for a decision that Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy has been demanding for months: Washington appears to be drawing closer to allowing Ukraine to aim U.S. and British long-range missiles deep into Russian territory, which it has so far been forbidden to do.

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