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What the pager attack in Lebanon means for Israel-Hezbollah conflict

Hezbollah has blamed Israel for an attack on Tuesday in which pagers belonging to its members exploded across Beirut and southern Lebanon, injuring nearly 3,000 people. On Wednesday afternoon, another set of low-tech wireless devices including walkie-talkies exploded in Lebanon, reportedly killing nine. 

Since Oct. 7, towns along Israel’s northern border have been under near-constant attack by the Iran-backed militant group, while Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon are making life impossible for civilians there. Yet each side has been wary of full-scale war, instead maintaining an uneasy equilibrium. 

Why We Wrote This

In Lebanon, exploding pagers and booby-trapped walkie-talkies – believed to be set off by Israel – have rattled Hezbollah and captured the world’s attention. What do they portend?

Now, in the wake of this week’s events, people on both sides of the border are wondering what comes next.

The attacks exposed vulnerabilities in Hezbollah’s efficacy and disrupted communications. In theory, this would be a strategic time for Israel to launch a broader offensive in Lebanon, and, indeed, officials have suggested that Israel’s military focus is shifting north from Gaza.

But Eyal Zisser, vice rector of Tel Aviv University, remains skeptical.

“The [Israeli] government does not know what to do about Gaza,” he says. “Does one give them credit that they will know what to do with Lebanon?”

As news broke Tuesday that pagers belonging to Hezbollah members were exploding across Beirut and southern Lebanon, injuring nearly 3,000 people, Israeli TV drama writer Avi Issacharoff turned to the social media platform X.

The co-creator of the hit TV series “Fauda,” about undercover Israeli operatives, posted that writers were working on another season, but “Nothing comes close to what’s currently happening in real life.”

Hezbollah has blamed Israel for the audacious, technically impressive attack, unprecedented in its scope, impact, and complexity.

Why We Wrote This

In Lebanon, exploding pagers and booby-trapped walkie-talkies – believed to be set off by Israel – have rattled Hezbollah and captured the world’s attention. What do they portend?

But the question exercising people on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border is much simpler: What might come next? Heightened tensions, spiraling retaliation, a wider war?

The first indication that Tuesday’s operation was more than a one-off move came Wednesday afternoon, when another set of low-tech wireless devices, among them walkie-talkies, exploded in Lebanon, reportedly injuring over 100 people and killing nine.

“If this is the beginning of a series of moves, you could say it was done to prepare for a larger offensive” against Hezbollah by destroying one of its communications networks, suggests Yaakov Katz, a senior fellow at The Jewish People Policy Institute, a Jerusalem think tank, and author of “The Weapon Wizards: How Israel Became a High-Tech Military Superpower.”

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