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Israel mulls Lebanon invasion. Hezbollah ‘coup de grâce’ or quagmire?

Almost a year after the Israeli army was caught by surprise and humiliated by Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack, its forces are back on the offensive.

Assassinating archenemy Hassan Nasrallah, leader of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah paramilitary group; launching a blitz that wiped out many of its top commanders; and leaving the organization dazed and immobilized – for the time being – Israel has reclaimed its role as a military powerhouse.

Why We Wrote This

Israeli attacks have killed Hassan Nasrallah, the head of the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah, and sown disarray in the group’s ranks. But have they done enough to make a ground assault into Lebanon feasible?

The question it faces now is how far to press its advantage at this potentially game-changing moment.

After 10 days of heavy aerial bombardment of Hezbollah positions, the army appears poised to launch a ground invasion of southern Lebanon in order to dislodge heavily dug-in forces near the border.

That, the government hopes, would make it safe for Israelis who live close to the border to return home; 65,000 of them were evacuated last October when Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel in support of Hamas.

Israeli forces might, however, expand their ambitions and make a bid to destroy Hezbollah as a fighting force. That would deal a grave blow to Iran, Hezbollah’s patron, and weaken the regional “Axis of Resistance” that includes Iran, Syria, Hamas, and Hezbollah. That could spark a retaliatory strike by Tehran, which could quickly explode into regional war.

Almost a year after the Israeli army was caught by surprise and humiliated by Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack, its forces are back on the offensive.

Assassinating archenemy Hassan Nasrallah, leader of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah paramilitary group; launching a blitz that wiped out many of its top commanders; and leaving the organization dazed and immobilized – for the time being – Israel has reclaimed its role as a military powerhouse.

The question it faces now is how far to press its advantage at this potentially game-changing moment.

Why We Wrote This

Israeli attacks have killed Hassan Nasrallah, the head of the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah, and sown disarray in the group’s ranks. But have they done enough to make a ground assault into Lebanon feasible?

At stake is not only the future of the 65,000 Israelis forced from their homes near the northern border with Lebanon by Hezbollah rocket fire. Israel has the opportunity now, the government believes, to hobble the most powerful member of the Iran-backed “Axis of Resistance.”

“For decades, he [Mr. Nasrallah] terrorized us in the most immediate sense,” Shimrit Meir, a former adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, told the Israeli podcast “Unholy.” Israel should capitalize on his death to “shape a reality that is different from this ring of fire that Israelis were in up until two weeks ago,” surrounded by hostile forces such as Axis members Hamas, Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen, she argued.

Meanwhile, pressure is mounting in Israel for a ground incursion into Lebanon, especially from those living along Israel’s northern border. They have seen over 8,000 Hezbollah rockets shot at their towns and villages in the past year, while they have been placed in temporary housing elsewhere. 

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