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Canada-India relations are at a new low. Why China could be the winner.

An India-Canada dispute that began last year with the killing of a Canadian citizen and Sikh independence activist reached new heights this week. Canada expelled six diplomats amid accusations involving homicide, extortion, and harassment of Indian diaspora on Canadian soil.

India, which failed to cooperate with Canada’s investigation and calls the accusations “preposterous,” expelled six Canadian diplomats in return, sinking the bilateral relationship to historic lows.

Why We Wrote This

The breakdown in India-Canada ties highlights a growing trend of transnational repression by India and other nations – and could force Western allies into a difficult balancing act in Asia.

Watchdog groups warn that transnational repression, in which governments reach beyond their borders to try to silence dissidents, is on the rise globally. Still, it’s more likely to be executed in authoritarian states than in democracies, and it’s even rarer to occur between two countries generally seen as friends.

The collapse comes at a time when Canada’s Western allies see India as a critical counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific. And while the West has been shoring up economic and strategic ties with India, critics say it has looked away from evidence of increasing authoritarianism under Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

“If the allegations are true, and a country you are supposed to be trusting … is carrying out acts of transnational repression on their soil, that is a very sobering thing to process,” says analyst Michael Kugelman.

Canada’s expulsion of six Indian diplomats this week, amid accusations involving homicide, extortion, intimidation, coercion, and harassment of Indian diaspora on Canadian soil, is more than a spectacular breakdown in bilateral relations between two countries.

It comes at a time when Canada’s Western allies see India, the world’s most populous nation, as a critical counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific. And while the West has been shoring up economic and strategic ties with India, critics say it has looked away from evidence of increasing authoritarianism under Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

“In many respects, the Canada-India issue right now is almost standing as a warning beacon to the entire Western alliance,” says Vincent Rigby, a McGill University professor and a former national security and intelligence adviser to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. “How do you manage this kind of relationship with an emerging global power that we want to cooperate with and that we want to be on good terms with but who’s doing these kinds of things to their friends?”

Why We Wrote This

The breakdown in India-Canada ties highlights a growing trend of transnational repression by India and other nations – and could force Western allies into a difficult balancing act in Asia.

Ottawa’s allegations that Indian government agents are linked to widespread violence against a Sikh minority in Canada, which India vehemently denies, are unprecedented. It’s not that transnational repression, in which governments reach beyond their borders to try to silence dissidents and which watchdog groups say is on the rise, hasn’t occurred in democracies. A former Russian spy and his daughter were found poisoned in Salisbury, England, in 2018 in a botched assassination attempt. But it’s much more likely to be executed in authoritarian or repressive states, and it’s even rarer to occur between two countries generally seen as friends.

Sikh activist killed

The Canadian dispute began with the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, an Indian-born Canadian citizen who was shot dead in the parking lot of a Sikh temple he ran in Surrey, British Columbia, in June 2023. At the time of his killing, he was an active campaigner in a movement for an independent Sikh nation, known as Khalistan, which its supporters say will be carved out of India’s Punjab state. Mr. Trudeau publicly claimed that “agents of the government of India” had been linked to the killing, drawing denial and outrage from the Indian government.

Blair Gable/Reuters

The Indian High Commission building is seen in Ottawa, Ontario, Oct. 14, 2024.

On Monday, with India failing to cooperate with Canada’s investigation, the government announced it was expelling India’s high commissioner to Canada and five other diplomats – with Canadian police alleging a much wider criminal campaign that they deemed so serious they went public.

“These are probably the gravest allegations against India made by another country ever,” says Praveen Donthi, senior analyst with the International Crisis Group in New Delhi.

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