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Hamas leader’s death revives hopes for a Gaza peace plan. Is that enough?

The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, mastermind of the Oct. 7 attack on Israel that led to a year-plus of war in Gaza, has shaken the region like an earthquake.

The questions now are on whether his death might facilitate the Gaza cease-fire and hostages release deal the Biden administration has promoted for months. And even more, revive the regional plan under consideration before the war, including Saudi-Israeli normalization and a pathway to a Palestinian state.

Why We Wrote This

After a harrowing year of war in Gaza and the Middle East, the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar rekindled hopes for a grand U.S.-led plan to move the region into a more peaceful era. But many obstacles, Israeli and Palestinian, remain.

Almost immediately, President Joe Biden signaled his hope that removal of the Sinwar obstacle would jump-start peace efforts. Indeed, several Gulf Arab diplomats appeared Friday to want to jump on the Biden “opportunity” bandwagon, seeing a chance to advance the plan that had been grounded for months and even to prevent an Israel-Iran war.

Yet words of caution abound, with some doubting whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is ready to subordinate his domestic political considerations.

“This should be an opportunity to advance the Biden initiative, which envisions a resolution of longstanding regional issues,” says Nimrod Novik, a former Israeli government official. “But the cork in the bottle for all of this is Gaza, and if you don’t uncork Gaza, you can’t get to the rest.”

Just over a year ago, the Biden administration was pressing Middle East partners forward on a transformative plan for the region that would include normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia and a definitive pathway to a Palestinian state.

Then Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar launched the surprise Oct. 7 attack on Israel – one of his motivations being to scuttle an American peace plan that seemed increasingly imminent.

A devastating war in Gaza – and expansion of the conflict to Hezbollah in Lebanon and to Iran – ensued.

Why We Wrote This

After a harrowing year of war in Gaza and the Middle East, the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar rekindled hopes for a grand U.S.-led plan to move the region into a more peaceful era. But many obstacles, Israeli and Palestinian, remain.

Now Mr. Sinwar has again shaken the region like an earthquake, this time with his death in a firefight Wednesday with Israeli soldiers on patrol in Gaza.

The question now is whether the Oct. 7 mastermind’s death might facilitate the Gaza cease-fire and hostages release deal the Biden administration has promoted for months – and even revive the grand regional plan.

For many experts, the answer depends heavily on navigating both ambitious Israeli war goals and internal Palestinian divisions.

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