In 2017, my wife and I left our home and jobs and traveled the country in a van, having conversations with all kinds of people about polarization and divisiveness in our culture. 

I thought mindful public discourse could make a difference. I sincerely believed America had temporarily taken leave of our senses, and once we’d suffered the consequences, we would take a collective breath and course-correct. I’m still waiting to exhale.

Not only did things not improve, but they got much worse. The pandemic, the death of George Floyd, and the January 6 Capitol attack, among many other events, served as punctuated moments. Hostilities escalated and divides were driven deeper, creating a real and present danger to the future of our constitutional democracy. 

We now find ourselves in an unprecedented historic moment, where the U.S. president is not bringing peace, but a sword. 

Trump is using his office to protect sexual predators, violate the sovereignty of other nations, enrich himself and his family, undermine trust in the electoral process, and actively weaponize disinformation, while using federal agents as his private army against the public. The murders of Renee Good and Alex Pretti in Minneapolis have brought us to another inflection point. 

What’s next? What can we do? Is there any value in persuasion anymore?

I can’t answer the big questions, but I can try to offer some guidance on whether we should keep the conversation going.

Drawing on my experience as a communication teacher and scholar, along with available data, I’ve created three categories of loyal MAGA voters/ Trump supporters to help us understand who our audience is.

Transactional Loyalists

This group is small and shrinking. They are traditional Republicans, conservatives or libertarians whose support is contingent on Trump achieving the right outcomes. 

He is a means to their ends: increased power, wealth, deregulation, grievances, etc. They are often disappointed in his public behavior and some of his policy decisions, but see the Democratic opposition as worse. They are very committed but somewhat persuadable through reason.

Emotional Loyalists

This group is more cultlike in their devotion. They are the ride-or-die supporters who see MAGA as their identity. They can’t often articulate what they want or get from a Trump administration, but he unlocks something in them that makes them ready to fly the flag of tribalism.

They see the opposition as enemies and traitors who can’t be fully trusted. They are not very persuadable, and only likely to reconsider because of deep relationships and long-term emotional commitments.

Moral Loyalists

After ten years, this group is the largest, the fastest growing, and the most resistant to persuasion. They don’t see Trump as a political choice, but as a moral imperative.

MAGA isn’t a political identity to attach themselves to; it is fused with who they are. They can’t conceive of a reality unaligned with their political truth. They dehumanize the other and favor the annihilation of the opposition. 

No one is 100% unpersuadable, but this group is as close as you can get.

The modest drop in Trump’s approval numbers has probably come mostly from the Transactional group. It will level out as the remaining MAGA supporters are driven more by identity than ethics or outcomes.

There is still a limited case for persuasion, but we need to consider how to allocate our resources. I offer three questions and typical responses as a way to assess the type of MAGA supporter you’re facing.

Question 1: What would it take for you to abandon Trump?

Transactional: “If he lost an election,” or “If he abandoned this particular policy.”
Emotional: “Both sides are corrupt,” or “You can’t trust the media.”
Moral: “Why would I?” or “People like you are the problem.”

Question 2: What do you think about January 6 and the criminal indictments?

Transactional: “I still have questions,” or “It’s not ideal.”
Emotional: “It’s not like people think it was,” or “What about Obama and Biden?”
Moral: “He showed strength,” or “Guess who’s still president.”

Question 3: What do you think about Democrats?

Transactional: “They are political opponents, and I think they’re wrong.”
Emotional: “They are the enemy, and I’m ready to fight them.”
Moral: “They are a threat to our freedom and the future of this country.”

Is it worth the effort?

I wouldn’t do the vanlife journey today. The travel might be exciting, but the conversations wouldn’t be very productive. 

Several of the Trump voters we had great conversations with years ago have since blocked me on social media. The gap has widened.

These days, our efforts are probably better spent building community, protesting, and engaging in civil disobedience. Meaningful arguments and persuasion are all but extinct.

But, as someone who has managed to influence a few family members and close friends, I know it can be hard to give up on the relationships that mean the most to us. Hopefully, this typology can help determine if it’s worth the effort.