In a new regional order that U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed on Latin America, Brazil has emerged as something of an outlier.
The divide has broadly been drawn along ideological lines in the region, with the Trump administration viewing conservative leaders as potential partners, and leftists as enemies.
But Brazil, led by a social democrat, is the only country in South America that stood up to Mr. Trump’s threats and was able to reestablish a working relationship as a result. This speaks to Brazil’s decades-long tradition of pragmatic foreign policy, focused on maintaining good relationships with all partners and staying out of conflicts.
Why We Wrote This
President Donald Trump is creating a new regional order in Latin America, drawn along ideological lines. Brazil’s leftist leader has so far managed to stay on his good side. Can that last?
The approach was cultivated by left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, commonly known as Lula, over two previous terms in office.
“Brazil has this position of a cautious foreign policy: seeking to always avoid confrontation, insisting on nonintervention and [national] sovereignty,” says Marsílea Gombata, a senior researcher in international relations at the University of São Paulo. But, she adds, this isn’t game over. In the wake of the United States’ Jan. 3 military incursion in Venezuela and the ouster there of President Nicolás Maduro, “now is a very delicate moment for Brazil.”
The Brazilian government announced that Lula is expected to visit the White House in early March.
Trump’s 180
Last July, Mr. Trump used 50% total tariffs and sanctions to try to pressure Brazil into dropping legal charges against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. The far-right populist, sometimes nicknamed “The Trump of the Tropics,” faced trial for attempting a coup after losing reelection in 2022. Lula’s government refused to bend, and Mr. Bolsonaro was sentenced in September to 27 years in prison, while Brazilian diplomats and business leaders sought a negotiated way out of the tariffs.
Mr. Trump was quick to drop his support for Mr. Bolsonaro after the conviction, speaking of his “excellent chemistry” with Lula just days later. In November, the U.S. lifted the 40% surplus tariffs on a number of Brazilian agricultural products. Sanctions against a Brazilian Supreme Court justice and his wife were lifted the following month. “I like him,” Mr. Trump said of Lula after a phone call in December.
Domestically, these events were seen as a victory over both Mr. Bolsonaro and the U.S., boosting Lula’s profile ahead of the presidential election this October. He’ll be seeking reelection for a fourth nonconsecutive term.
By comparison, in neighboring Colombia, Gustavo Petro has been a constant target of President Trump’s ire, even after he backed down and accepted deportation flights from the U.S. in January 2025, following threats of tariffs and travel bans when he first refused them. Mr. Trump has suggested that Mr. Petro could face an end similar to that of Mr. Maduro in Venezuela, though the two men reported having a fruitful closed-door meeting at the White House on Feb. 3.
Analysts see several reasons behind Brazil’s reversal of fortunes. Brazil had more leeway to negotiate as it is less economically reliant on the U.S. than some of its neighbors, says Maurício Santoro, a researcher at the Brazilian Navy’s Center for Political and Strategic Studies. In Mexico, which is heavily dependent on trade with the U.S., President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo has struggled to balance national sovereignty with maintaining a good relationship with the Trump administration.
Dr. Santoro points also to a miscalculation on Mr. Trump’s part in Brazil. Allies of Mr. Bolsonaro lobbying Washington for help probably “convinced Trump that the Bolsonaro family had much more political support than it truly did,” he says.
“If there’s something we understand about Donald Trump, it’s that he doesn’t like to be on the losing side,” says Thomas Traumann, a Brazilian political consultant. Mr. Bolsonaro was put under house arrest last August and began serving his sentence behind bars in November, prompting more public celebration than outrage. In a Datafolha poll published on Dec. 8, 54% of Brazilian respondents said they believed Mr. Bolsonaro’s imprisonment to be fair, while 40% said it was unfair.
Now, “Lula is perhaps the only left-wing president who can claim to have a good relationship with Trump,” says Dr. Santoro. He points to similarities between the two men, such as their shared tendency to follow their instincts rather than advice from bureaucrats and to favor personal negotiations.
Where to next?
But Mr. Trump’s mercurial behavior casts doubt over any relationship with the United States. Take Venezuela, for instance, where the U.S. president dropped conservative opposition leader María Corina Machado to work with Delcy Rodríguez, a leading figure in Mr. Maduro’s regime.
“We’ve seen that not everything is a done deal, and there’s no way of saying the relationship will remain positive,” says Dr. Gombata of the victories Brazil notched in its negotiations with the United States in recent months.
Already, Brazil has been hit by sweeping U.S. measures this month, including the suspension of immigrant visa processing and the threat of 25% tariffs on countries trading with Iran.
And the operation in Venezuela reminded Latin America that the U.S. under Mr. Trump is willing to assert control in what he considers to be his backyard.
Across the region, many wonder whether their country could be next, a fear voiced on Jan. 5 by Brazilians protesting the U.S. incursion. “We know that we have resources on our territory, principally our rare earths, which are of international interest,” says political activist Rafaela Lima, standing next to signs condemning U.S. imperialism in downtown Rio de Janeiro.
In a poll published in January, 58% of Brazilian respondents said they fear the U.S. could take similar action in their country.
“Venezuela is just the first test of Trump’s new national security doctrine,” says Dr. Santoro. Though he finds the idea of a U.S. intervention in Brazil “unrealistic.”
With elections scheduled for October, and the recent precedent of U.S. electoral interference in the region, nothing is completely out of bounds.
In Honduras’ November election, Mr. Trump backed a conservative candidate who went on to win. In Argentina, the U.S. offered a $20 billion financial lifeline on condition that President Javier Milei’s right-wing party perform well in midterm elections in October, which it did.
There is real unease in Brazil, says Mr. Traumann, that similar pressures could be exerted here. Which, he says, makes maintaining good relations with Mr. Trump all the more important.