Amid a U.S. crackdown on international oil shipments to Cuba, the communist government there is estimated to run out of fuel by the end of March if no new oil tankers arrive, experts say.
Already, the U.S. measure is taking a toll: This week, all of Canada’s major airlines announced the cancellation of flights to the Caribbean island over a lack of aviation fuel inside Cuba. Other long-haul carriers are expected to follow, hitting Cuba’s tourism sector at a moment when the economy is deeply struggling.
In Mexico, President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo has spoken publicly about the situation in Cuba almost daily since U.S. President Donald Trump issued an executive order that categorized Cuba as a national security threat and promised to impose tariffs on any nation sending oil to the island’s communist government. Mexico was Cuba’s largest oil provider in 2025, and says shipments are paused at the moment because of U.S. threats.
Why We Wrote This
The economic squeeze in Cuba puts Mexico in a difficult position as it navigates a 124-year relationship with the Caribbean country and a U.S. crackdown on international oil shipments to the island.
Cuba and Mexico have an historic relationship dating back more than 120 years, and that has put Ms. Sheinbaum in a difficult position as she tries to balance U.S. demands and Mexican foreign policy priorities.
Mexico “will continue to support” Cuba and help it recover oil shipments because the United States “can’t strangle people like this. It’s very unjust,” Ms. Sheinbaum said in a news conference on Feb. 9. The day prior, two Mexican Navy vessels departed from the state of Veracruz carrying 814 tons of food and humanitarian supplies to Cuba, which is situated roughly 140 miles off the coast of Mexico.
The U.S. is ratcheting up pressure on Latin American governments under its new foreign policy approach, sometimes referred to as the “Monroe Doctrine 2.0” or the “Donroe Doctrine” – inspired by former U.S. president James Monroe’s approach to foreign policy involving the creation of spheres of influence, particularly featuring U.S. leadership in the Americas. The U.S. posits that the region is within its sphere of influence, and Mexico, sitting just south of the United States, has had to walk a fine line since Mr. Trump returned to power, responding to threats of tariffs and military action if Mexico doesn’t make changes the U.S. would like to see in security, immigration, and trade policies.
But Cuba is proving to be something of a sticking point.
“Cuba is a special relationship for Mexico,” says Pia Taracena Gout, who teaches international relations at Universidad Iberoamericana in Mexico City. But in many ways, the relationship has been “triangular,” including the U.S., since the Cuban Revolution, says Dr. Taracena.
While the U.S. has had the communist nation under an economic embargo for more than 60 years, Mexico’s ability to disregard past U.S. calls to isolate Cuba has allowed Mexico to “show its autonomy from the United States,” she says.