Eran Stepak sat at a coffee shop in the Ramat Aviv suburb of Tel Aviv, his dog Toy at his feet, adjusting to a quiet that had been absent for weeks.
Like many Israelis, he had spent long stretches in a safe room as missiles from Iran and its allies streaked toward the country.
“There is a huge relief that there are no missiles coming from Iran,” he says. “On the other hand, the problem has not been solved, just postponed. We hoped that after this war the existential threat would be removed, but that did not happen.”
Why We Wrote This
In Israel, support for the war against Iran has been high. Civilians readily made sacrifices to support strategic aims. But the ceasefire has left many feeling the job was unfinished, and assessments of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership have been harsh.
His ambivalence reflects a broader national mood following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire reached between the United States and Iran that halted six weeks of intense fighting. The truce has brought physical respite but little clarity, leaving Israelis balancing relief with deep uncertainty.
The ceasefire has also exposed a widening gap between Israel’s battlefield successes and its political outcomes. While military operations weakened Iran and its regional allies, many Israelis fear those gains have not brought lasting security – and merely set the stage for another round of conflict.
“The problem is that the [Israel Defense Forces’] victories were not translated into political gains, generating a deal that will bring quiet or at least no war,” Mr. Stepak says. “And all of this after almost three years of war,” which have not solved problems with Hamas or Hezbollah either, he adds.
“Political disaster”
Opposition politicians were quick to tap into the public’s frustration, saying Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was to blame for a strategic failure.
“None of the goals were achieved: The nuclear program was not destroyed. The ballistic [missile] threat remains. The regime is still in place and even emerges from this war stronger. Iran holds enriched uranium, controls the Strait of Hormuz, and dictates the terms,” Yair Golan, the leader of the Democrats party and a reserve major general in the army, wrote on X.
“There has never been such a political disaster in all of our history,” wrote opposition leader Yair Lapid, on X. “Israel wasn’t even at the table when decisions were made concerning the core of our national security.
“The military carried out everything that was asked of it, the public demonstrated amazing resilience, but Netanyahu failed politically, failed strategically, and didn’t meet a single one of the goals that he himself set,” Mr. Lapid wrote. “It will take us years to repair the political and strategic damage that Netanyahu wrought due to arrogance, negligence, and a lack of strategic planning.”
The thousands of rockets and missiles that were fired at Israel from Iran and Lebanon since the Feb. 28 start of Operation Roaring Lion – Israel’s name for its assault on Iran – caused heavy damage. According to the Ynet news site, 30 civilians were killed, and homes and vehicles were damaged across the country. Twelve soldiers have been killed in fighting that continues in Lebanon.
“I don’t think any Israeli feels any sense of victory right now,” says political analyst Dahlia Scheindlin. “Israelis, on the one hand, are extremely relieved to have some time without missile barrages, but also completely uncertain as to whether this is truly an end to the fighting.”
Mr. Netanyahu has sought to frame the pause differently, signaling that Israel’s military campaign is not over.
“The State of Israel has achieved immense accomplishments, achievements that until recently seemed completely imaginary,” he said. “Iran is weaker than ever, and Israel is stronger than ever.”
There are still “goals to complete,” he conceded, “and we will achieve them, either by agreement or by the resumption of fighting. … Our finger is on the trigger.”
Yet skepticism persists about meeting the goals, especially as Mr. Netanyahu had already hailed the 12-day war against Iran last June as having removed the existential threat posed by Iran, in a “historic victory” that would stand for “generations.”
Unfavorable polls
A poll published on Thursday by Israel’s Channel 12 showed a majority of respondents, 53%, opposed the ceasefire with Iran, and 79% opposed a ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Of those polled, 45% said they believe that the war with Iran will be renewed within two weeks.
With parliamentary elections expected by October, other polls published on Thursday showed Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud party losing votes for now in the wake of the temporary ceasefire, though not enough for opposition parties to secure a majority.
Concerns about Israel’s strategic position extend beyond the battlefield. Analysts warn that the United States might not be at Israel’s side when the next round of conflict comes.
The growing perception in the U.S. that Mr. Netanyahu dragged America into an unnecessary war against Iran is jeopardizing Israel’s already low standing with the American public, warned Raz Zimmt, a director at the Institute for National Security Studies. Additionally, he wrote in an article on the Ynet website that perception “poses a significant challenge to [Israel’s] ability to mobilize support in the future for a campaign against Iran.”
Meanwhile, Israel’s ongoing strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon are reportedly threatening to undermine the already fragile ceasefire with Iran.
Oded Balilty/AP
Among other conditions Iran has set for Saturday’s negotiations in Pakistan, it is insisting that Israel cease military operations in Lebanon. Under pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, Mr. Netanyahu said on Thursday he agreed to peace talks with Lebanon, but would not halt the attacks. On Friday, it was reported that Mr. Trump wants a ceasefire before Israel-Lebanon talks begin in Washington next week.
President Trump, meanwhile, threatened to use unprecedented force if Iran does not comply with the terms of the ceasefire.
The negotiation gaps between the U.S. and Iran are so wide that “I will not be surprised if in two weeks from today, we will find ourselves in another cycle, in another military campaign,” Kobi Michael, a senior fellow at the Misgav Institute for National Security Studies and Zionist Strategy, said in a briefing.
Return to routines
For now, however, Israelis are embracing a tentative return to their regular routines. Beaches in Tel Aviv have been filled with visitors enjoying the spring weather. Schools have reopened, and commercial flights are gradually resuming.
Erez Gottlieb was walking his dog in a park in Ramat Aviv on Thursday after having slept through the night without alarms going off.
“It was nice to get to sleep again,” he says. “But there are no clear wins in the wars these days, and the war will be back sooner or later. We haven’t finished the job.”
“Netanyahu is concerned by the public mood he is seeing and will do everything he can to change it,” says Eran Etzion, a former deputy head of the National Security Council. “We are already seeing signs of this in his refusal to agree to a ceasefire in Lebanon and his willingness to derail broader diplomatic arrangements.”
He says Mr. Netanyahu needs the war to continue on multiple fronts and for as long as possible, because “the moment the war ends and life returns to normal, he risks losing the next election.”
President Trump and internal pressure within Israel could rein him in, Mr. Etzion adds. “If Trump chooses to exert his influence, he has demonstrated in the past that he can do so decisively – even with a single phone call.”