The off-again, on-again hostilities and opening of the Strait of Hormuz are prompting more creative and proactive thinking about global diplomacy and global markets. Governments are using the lulls to rev up stalled economic activities. And the key fossil fuel-producing nations of the Gulf are working quickly to establish alternative infrastructures of cooperation – as well as of concrete and steel.
Already, Iraq – which has had tense relations with Syria for years – has been exporting its oil overland via tanker trucks to Syrian ports. And many Gulf states have pivoted to importing tons of timber, cement, and agricultural and consumer goods through those same ports. There are efforts to collaborate on new pipelines, storage facilities, and even a multicountry rail project. As the Monitor reported last week, these moves are “already reshaping regional trade and cementing new Mideast alliances” among countries such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, and Syria.
Diplomacy and dealmaking are gradually replacing decades of sectarian differences and political power plays, as Arab nations – small and large – reconfigure their regional role and relationships. This process, according to Chatham House, the London-based think tank, could ultimately lead to “a unified, proactive … Gulf architecture” that reduces vulnerability to the decisions of other nations.
Other analysts view this moment – in the aftermath of the war launched by the United States and Israel on Iran, and its spillover attacks in the Gulf – as an opportunity to establish a “Westphalia-type” compact. The 1648 Peace of Westphalia, which ended decades of war among Spanish, Dutch, and German rulers, established lasting norms around national sovereignty, balance of power, and interstate alliances.
Like Europe did, the Middle East today is realizing it can help prevent conflict “through its own internal alliances,” according to War on the Rocks, an online platform focused on defense and foreign affairs. “The alignments we witness today are … the region’s effort to find its own center of gravity.”
Amid ongoing and uncertain global realignments, any moves toward greater regional stability and interconnectedness offer hope for economic and peace dividends. In April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that if the ceasefire holds, the war in the Gulf will reduce global growth rates only slightly, from an expected 3.4% to 3.1%. On the plus side, it cited new trade partnerships, regional agreements, and a greater impetus for renewables in import-dependent nations as a way to “improve energy security, and support the climate transition.”
Or, as the World Economic Forum put it this month, the conflict has catalyzed “a profound shift in how we conceive of the energy transition. What was once framed primarily as a climate imperative is now equally a matter of strategic sovereignty.”
Refreshed views of international relations as well as natural and national resources can spur diplomatic and technical innovations that help avert or better navigate future conflicts.
While the world might “become more multipolar, it need not become more fragmented,” according to the IMF. In fact, as the eight-decade-old institution points out, the IMF itself was “forged in the aftermath of war and great destruction, to advance economic and financial cooperation and integration for the benefit of all. Today, those principles are more vital than ever.”