When French voters head to the polls to elect a new president next year, a familiar – and polarizing – name looks set to be on the ballot.
Far-right leader Marine Le Pen has decided to enter the presidential fray in 2027, despite an embezzlement conviction and an ongoing court case. On Tuesday evening, Ms. Le Pen announced her candidacy after an appeals court handed down its verdict earlier in the day, in a case that has captivated France for the past year and could also decide its political future.
When Ms. Le Pen was found guilty of misusing European Union funds last year, the courts fined her €100,000 ($114,000) and rendered her ineligible to run for public office for five years. Though the court upheld its guilty verdict Tuesday, it shortened the election ban on Ms. Le Pen to 45 months, of which 30 months are suspended and the remaining 15 she must spend under house arrest with limited time outside while wearing an ankle monitor.
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Marine Le Pen’s political future continues to hinge on the French judicial process, after she announced she would again appeal her embezzlement conviction. But she has said that she will run in the 2027 French presidential race, whatever the final decision.
Ms. Le Pen has announced, however, that she will appeal the latest ruling to the Court of Cassation, France’s highest court for civil and criminal cases. According to Ms. Le Pen, her new appeal will suspend Tuesday’s ruling and allow her to campaign without the ankle monitor. She said last week she would only run for president if uninhibited by electronic tagging.
“When you are a presidential candidate, you must be completely free to move about,” she said in an interview with French media. “I can’t depend on a judge to let me hold a rally in Romorantin or visit a market in Hénin-Beaumont.”
Ms. Le Pen’s future is still contingent on a judge’s decision. The timing of the Court of Cassation’s decision, whatever it ends up being, could allow her to campaign for several months without restrictions – potentially enough time to convince the French of her presidential worthiness.
“The French are much more ready now for a far-right president,” says Douglas Webber, professor emeritus of political science at the business school INSEAD. “After decades of alternating mainstream presidents, there is a kind of anti-incumbent effect that plays strongly in favor of the extreme right.”
On Tuesday, Ms. Le Pen pushed away speculation that her young successor and National Rally party leader, Jordan Bardella, would run for president in her place. Instead, she spoke of them forming a “solid, winning pair,” with Ms. Le Pen as president and Mr. Bardella as her prime minister. She promised to be a “breath of fresh air” for the country.
Ms. Le Pen’s confidence is not mere hyperbole. In 2017, she received 33.9% in the second round of elections against the current president, Emmanuel Macron. In 2022, she received 41.45%. The race next year is expected to be even tighter.
Brushing away the possibility that the Court of Cassation could rule against her, Ms. Le Pen maintained her innocence Tuesday and said that the French – not judges – will decide her future.
The courts have opened a window for Ms. Le Pen to run for president. The question now is whether or not the French trust the country in her hands.
Marine Le Pen will claim “to be a martyr, who has been persecuted by the hypocritical French elites,” says Hall Gardner, professor emeritus of political science at the American University of Paris. However, “whether she can win and how the elections will turn out is anybody’s guess.”