The Giorgia Meloni of the past few weeks has come as a surprise to everyone.
For a year, the Italian prime minister was seen as the best friend of President Donald Trump in Europe – a “Trump whisperer” so closely aligned that she was at Mar-a-Lago for his inauguration festivities. Now, she is lobbing firebombs at him on social media.
In one recent spat, she quipped, “As for my popularity, being your friend has certainly not helped it, nor does it depend on my relationship with you.”
Why We Wrote This
Giorgia Meloni, the prime minister of Italy, was once seen as a Trump whisperer extraordinaire and potential herald of a far-right swerve in Italy. But she’s taken a surprisingly centrist pivot instead and, in recent weeks, has distanced herself from the White House.
Then again, Italy’s first female prime minister has been a surprise from the beginning. Ms. Meloni was expected to steer a far-right path, in keeping with her Brothers of Italy party’s platform. Instead, “the main story of her four years is that she pivoted to the center,” says political commentator Francesco Costa.
It is a reminder that, first and foremost, Ms. Meloni is a politician in the fullest sense of the term. At a time of ideologues and outsiders, Ms. Meloni is, in a way, a throwback. Savvy and sharp, she has ruled not as a revolutionary, but as an old-school power broker, understanding how to survive and even thrive in the chaotic world of Italian politics.
Now, with elections approaching, the woman who entered politics at age 15 and was once called “the geek” for her dedication to political preparation is doing what she does best: seizing an opportunity.
“She’s a very expert and ruthless politician,” says Mr. Costa, editor of online daily Il Post. “She’s been in politics since she was a student. She gets how politics works in Italy.”
So far, she has succeeded not by instituting a radical agenda, but by bringing stability. In a political culture steeped in “tax and spend” as well as scandal, the Meloni government has been notable for responsibility and fiscal restraint. On one hand, it is hard to point to any particular achievement. On the other, Italians have enjoyed a period of unusual political calm.
Already, her government has lasted longer – four years – than any in Italy’s post-World War II history. Her party also has the distinction of being the only modern Italian party to gain popularity while in office. Brothers of Italy is polling near 27%, up from 23% at the last election.
In the end, a recent failed attempt to amend the constitution to restructure the judiciary was little more than a hiccup. The reform was always more important to Ms. Meloni’s allies than to Ms. Meloni herself, analysts here say, and a majority of Italians rejected it in a national referendum. The only fallout might be that new parliamentary elections are moved up to next spring rather than the scheduled date of September 2027.
Ms. Meloni’s real vulnerability is on the right. Except for harsh new laws against migration and LGBTQ+ rights, the right-wing revolution never happened, which means the extreme-right National Future party is on the rise.
But all this potentially suits Ms. Meloni. If the extreme right gains in power, they will need her to form a government. The centrists, meanwhile, will likely need her to hold the National Future at bay. “She’s the only one who is the winner in any case,” says Dario Quattromani, a political scientist at Link Campus University in Rome.
Umit Bektas/Reuters
So in a time-honored Italian political tradition, she is using her last months in office to pass election laws to solidify her position. “Meloni’s idea is to bring to the opposition more problems than they have,” says Dr. Quattromani.
But she will have a decision to make. Will she pivot right to work with National Future, or will she pivot further to the center and ally with one of her current coalition members, Forza Italia?
In either case, picking a fight with Mr. Trump can only help. For a time, she saw her relationship with Mr. Trump as a sign of strength. But the deep unpopularity of the Iran war here, as well as the thorough defeat of Trump ally Viktor Orbán in Hungary, revealed the scant political benefits of being Mr. Trump’s friend. So when Mr. Trump claimed that Ms. Meloni was “begging” for a photo with him at the Group of Seven summit, she fired back.
“I don’t know why the president of the United States behaves this way toward his own allies,” she said. “But there’s one thing he must remember: Neither I nor Italy ever beg.”
However Ms. Meloni shifts from here, the chances of her using a second term to drive an illiberal, populist agenda are slim. The powers of the Italian prime minister are so limited, she can’t even sack her own secretaries.
“The Italian constitution was written after fascism to make sure the country can’t be governed,” quips Mr. Costa. “It’s very hard to turn Italy into a dictatorship.”