The No. 1 question in U.S. politics in the wake of President Joe Biden’s alarming debate performance has been: Will Mr. Biden withdraw from the 2024 presidential race? And that has sparked a host of secondary questions – about who might replace him and how exactly that would work, if it would work.
The short answer is: If Mr. Biden decides to exit the race in the next few weeks and endorses someone else, there is a relatively clear path for a new candidate to become the nominee at the Democratic National Convention in late August. But only his running mate, Vice President Kamala Harris, could tap into the campaign’s existing funds.
Why We Wrote This
Democrats are debating not only whether the Biden campaign is beyond repair – but whether replacing their candidate could be too risky.
Nearly 4,000 delegates to the DNC are pledged to Joe Biden, but they are not legally bound to support him if in good conscience they decide it’s in the interest of their states or voters to elect someone else. If there’s not a consensus on the first ballot, the convention could get messy – and superdelegates, including Democratic governors and members of Congress, could also join in the voting.
The last time a Democratic candidate didn’t get the nomination on the first ballot was 1952.
The No. 1 question in U.S. politics in the wake of President Joe Biden’s alarming debate performance has been: Will Mr. Biden withdraw from the 2024 presidential race? And that has sparked a host of secondary questions – about who might replace him and how exactly that would work, if it would work.
There are three main scenarios under which Mr. Biden could be replaced on the ticket. The most straightforward would be if Mr. Biden exited the race ahead of the Democratic National Convention (DNC), set to be held Aug. 19-22 in Chicago. Alternatively, he could be replaced by another candidate at the convention. The thorniest path would be if he stepped down after the convention.
The first scenario is widely considered the easiest of the three, should Democrats decide a different candidate is needed. But it could still prove divisive.
Why We Wrote This
Democrats are debating not only whether the Biden campaign is beyond repair – but whether replacing their candidate could be too risky.
Who chooses the nominee?
There is a widespread perception that primary voters directly choose presidential candidates, but that’s not quite true. Voters in state primaries and caucuses cast their ballot for the candidate they like best. But the nominee is elected by delegates to the party convention, who are chosen based on primary or caucus results in their state.
Within the Democratic Party, 3,896 delegates have pledged to support Mr. Biden at next month’s convention, 36 are uncommitted, and seven support other candidates, according to The Associated Press delegate tracker.
Per DNC rules, delegates “shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.” Many interpret that to mean that even if they have pledged to support Mr. Biden, they could still change their vote at the convention to better reflect the attitudes of those they represent.
Mr. Biden could facilitate the process by withdrawing ahead of the convention, potentially endorsing a replacement. So far, however, he has insisted he is staying in the race.
What happens if Mr. Biden steps aside?
If Mr. Biden stepped down in the next few weeks, this would trigger an open convention, in which a new candidate would have to try to win over a majority of the Democratic Party’s delegates.
If a candidate won that majority on the first ballot, he or she would become the party’s nominee. The most straightforward replacement for Mr. Biden would likely be Vice President Kamala Harris, but other names have also been floated.
If no candidate won on the first round (something that hasn’t happened since 1952), voting would be opened up to 739 superdelegates, who are not pledged to any candidate. These superdelegates, also known as “automatically seated delegates,” include all Democratic members of Congress and Democratic governors, as well as other party leaders.
Under a more dramatic scenario, if Mr. Biden refuses to step aside but many in the party remain intent on finding another nominee, a candidate could challenge him at the convention by trying to convince more than half of the delegates to vote for him or her instead.
Would the nomination still get on all 50 state ballots?
Alabama, Ohio, and Washington all have early deadlines for confirming the nominee for each party. Ohio’s was originally slated for Aug. 7, nearly two weeks before the Democratic convention starts. To work around this, the DNC set plans in motion to nominate its candidate via virtual roll-call votes before the convention.
The Ohio deadline was then pushed back during a special legislative session in May, and the two other states also adjusted their timelines. Nevertheless, the DNC has not changed its plans to go forward with the early roll-call votes – although in the wake of Mr. Biden’s rocky debate performance, some delegates have asked for more time.
It’s also possible that Mr. Biden could accept the nomination and then decide to step aside later. This could cause Democrats to run up against state ballot deadlines, creating a sticky path forward for the new nominee.
Any replacement effort could face legal challenges; even before the June 27 debate, the conservative Heritage Foundation said they would challenge a potential Biden withdrawal in court. The group argued in a memo, posted on the social platform X, that litigation could delay or thwart getting a new nominee on the ballot in at least some states.
Would a new nominee be able to tap Biden campaign funds?
The Biden Harris campaign had $91 million on hand at the end of May, the most recent tally available from the Federal Election Commission. Last week, the campaign announced that June marked its strongest fundraising month yet this cycle, with a total of $240 million now at its disposal, counting funds from the Biden for President organization, the Democratic National Committee, and joint fundraising committees.
If Mr. Biden left the race, the only potential nominee who could directly inherit that campaign money would be Vice President Kamala Harris. If someone other than Ms. Harris were nominated, Mr. Biden’s campaign funds could be donated to the DNC or a political action committee (PAC). However, the rules on how PAC money can be used would significantly limit the extent to which those funds could be tapped by another candidate.
Has anything like this happened before?
The most analogous situation may be the last open convention the Democratic Party had, in 1968. That year, President Lyndon B. Johnson, facing mounting protests over the Vietnam War, dropped out of the race partway through the primary season. But Mr. Johnson made his decision five months before Democrats would choose their nominee.
He endorsed his vice president, Hubert Humphrey, who supported the war and had not won a single primary. Party leaders nominated Mr. Humphrey at the convention – which, like this year, was held in Chicago, inflaming anti-war protesters. The chaos outside the convention was mirrored by the infighting within. In November, Mr. Humphrey lost the election to Richard Nixon.
In the convention’s aftermath, a DNC-appointed commission made significant reforms to the nomination process, curtailing the power of party leaders and making the nomination process more democratic. The commission also introduced guidelines to make the actual convention process more inclusive and less dependent on backroom dealings.