Dictators worry when young men start to listen to the voices for freedom among the people rather than join the military. For Vladimir Putin, a mass conscription last year to boost troop numbers in Ukraine went so badly the Russian leader appears reluctant to do it again. A similar problem now confronts the military junta in Myanmar two years into a brutal war on pro-democracy forces.
The army in the Southeast Asian nation has shrunk by an estimated half because of problems in recruitment. Among the rank and file, defections and desertions are on the rise. Many fighting-age men now side with the values of the National Unity Government (NUG), a resistance force created after the military ousted an elected government in 2021 and put democracy champion Aung San Suu Kyi in prison.
With fewer soldiers on the ground and a massive loss of territory, the regime has resorted to air strikes on NUG forces and civilians. “So far in 2023, Myanmar had the highest number of civilian casualties by airstrike in the world,” claims the Asian Forum for Human Rights and Development.
One attack in April killed some 100 people, bringing an unusually strong international response. “All forms of violence must end immediately, particularly the use of force against civilians,” said the head of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Then last Sunday, a convoy of vehicles carrying officials from Singapore and Indonesia came under fire in Myanmar, presumably from pro-regime forces. The convoy was carrying humanitarian aid.
ASEAN leaders – except those from Myanmar – are meeting this week in Indonesia to assess their efforts to end the war and facilitate talks between the junta and the NUG. “The aim is to provide space for the parties to build trust and for the parties to be more open in communicating,” says Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi.
ASEAN’s member states have more autocratic rulers than elected ones, which makes it difficult for the regional bloc to act boldly on Myanmar. Yet as that nation’s fighting force dwindles and atrocities rise, ASEAN may be forced to change tactics. It also recognizes that the pro-democracy forces are better united and organized – and better able to persuade young men not to side with the military.
Some wars are won less with deadly ammunition than with decisive persuasion.