The GOP 2024 field is officially crowded. Former Vice President Mike Pence formally threw his hat in the ring today in Iowa, while on Tuesday, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie launched his campaign in New Hampshire. Other candidates include Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley, and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, among others.
The question for Republicans is whether past is prologue: Will former President Donald Trump triumph over another crowded field by nosing ahead in winner-take-all primaries, securing the nomination with a mere plurality of GOP voters? Or will most of his opponents step aside in time for Republican voters to potentially consolidate behind a single non-Trump candidate?
Why We Wrote This
Will 2024 play out like 2016 all over again? A crowded Republican field may work to the benefit of former President Donald Trump – but his rivals may also have learned some lessons.
No longer a political outsider, the former president now has a record that can be attacked. He is also facing mounting legal woes.
Yet knocking Mr. Trump off his pedestal could prove harder this cycle, given his enduring popularity with the party grassroots. “You have to tell people who have voted for him in two elections not to do so. That’s a heavy lift,” says Michael Wolf, a political scientist at Purdue University.
Of the 10-plus Republicans now vying for the 2024 presidential nomination, only two have been down this road before.
One, of course, is former President Donald Trump, who in 2016 beat out 16 other GOP aspirants and shocked the pundit class to claim a mantle as party leader that he has never relinquished, even after his 2020 electoral defeat.
The other is two-term New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. In announcing his campaign in New Hampshire Tuesday, Governor Christie made clear that his path to the nomination will hinge on momentum from its first-in-the-nation primary, although that bet did not pan out for him in 2016.
Why We Wrote This
Will 2024 play out like 2016 all over again? A crowded Republican field may work to the benefit of former President Donald Trump – but his rivals may also have learned some lessons.
He also made clear that that path will have to go directly through the former president – a factor looming over every non-Trump Republican in the race and, increasingly, raising questions about how many of them ought to be running.
The GOP field is officially crowded. Former Vice President Mike Pence formally threw his hat in the ring today in Iowa, where he has been courting the evangelical voters that were his political base when he served as Indiana governor. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, a former software entrepreneur from a hardscrabble prairie town, also announced a run on Wednesday. Other candidates in the mix include Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former United Nations ambassador and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.
The question for the Republican Party is whether past is prologue: Will Mr. Trump triumph over another large field by nosing ahead in winner-take-all primaries, securing the nomination with a mere plurality of GOP voters? Or will most of his 2024 opponents step aside in time for Republican voters to potentially consolidate behind a single non-Trump candidate?
In his kickoff speech, Mr. Pence said he was grateful for Mr. Trump’s service and record in office but criticized his former boss for betraying the constitutional order on Jan. 6, 2021, when he urged supporters and the vice president himself to stop the counting of electoral votes for Joe Biden in Congress.
“I believe that anyone who puts themselves over the Constitution should never be president of the United States. And anyone who asked someone else to put them over the Constitution should never be president of the United States again,” Mr. Pence said. “Our liberties have been bought at too high a price.”
One factor already differentiating this cycle from 2016 is that Mr. Trump has one rival whose poll numbers put him in a different tier from the rest. Governor DeSantis started the race in a relatively strong position among GOP voters compared to all those jostling for support in 2016, says Dante Scala, a politics professor at the University of New Hampshire. In an April poll of likely New Hampshire primary voters, Mr. DeSantis was backed by 29%, behind Mr. Trump at 42%.
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters
Perhaps equally important, Mr. Trump also started this race in a different position. For one, he’s no longer the ultimate political outsider. “In 2016 Trump was a new sort of candidate. Now that’s not true,” Professor Scala says. As a former president, Mr. Trump has a record that can be attacked. He’s also facing mounting legal woes.
Trump’s enduring popularity
Yet the challenge of knocking Mr. Trump off his pedestal could prove harder this cycle, given his enduring popularity with the party grassroots. “You have to tell people who have voted for him in two elections not to do so. That’s a heavy lift,” says Michael Wolf, a political scientist at Purdue University.
That exalted status is why many Republican aspirants have, so far, largely treated Mr. Trump with kid gloves. A notable exception is Mr. Christie, an erstwhile friend and ally who has telegraphed his intention to take the fight directly to the former president. On Tuesday, he described Mr. Trump, whom he endorsed in 2016, as a narcissist and liar who never admits to mistakes, and he mocked other candidates for offering veiled criticisms without ever naming their target. “It’s Voldemort time, everyone,” he said, referring to the “he-who-shall-not-be-named” villain in the “Harry Potter” series.
Mr. Christie insisted that he was not simply in the race to take down Mr. Trump, but was serious about winning the nomination – emphasizing that those two goals are necessarily linked. “There is one lane to the Republican nomination and he’s in front of it. And if you want to win you better go right through him,” he said.
Sophie Park/Reuters
For his announcement, Mr. Christie drew a crowd of around 120 people that included independents and even some Democrats, along with Republicans who have soured on the former president.
“It’s time for new ideas,” says Sylvain Theroux, a Republican from Hooksett, New Hampshire, who runs a construction company. He voted twice for Mr. Trump but says he won’t again, citing the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol. “He didn’t do the right thing. There’s got to be some morality in this world.”
Mr. Theroux, who brought his 18-year-old son to the Christie town hall at Saint Anselm College, said he liked Ms. Haley but was keen to hear what Mr. Christie had to say. Was the former New Jersey governor a viable candidate? “Maybe,” he says.
Dennis Cronin, a retail-industry consultant from Bedford, says he voted for Mr. Christie in 2016 and would consider doing so again. “I like him. He’s very smart and knowledgeable.” Mr. Trump wouldn’t be his first choice, Mr. Cronin says, but “if he’s the nominee I will vote for him.”
The grace to bow out
Mr. Christie’s launch came on the same day that the state’s popular Republican governor, Chris Sununu, ended speculation about his own campaign for the nomination. In declining to run, Mr. Sununu, a frequent Trump critic, pointedly gave his fellow Republicans a deadline for consolidating, to prevent the former president from winning again.
Jack Dura/AP
“No one can stop candidates from entering this race, but candidates with no path to victory must have the discipline to get out. Anyone polling in the low single digits by this winter needs to have the courage to hang it up and head home,” he wrote in The Washington Post.
In 2020, the Democratic Party successfully navigated a crowded primary field, as several opponents to Mr. Biden dropped out and endorsed him after he won the South Carolina primary in March. That allowed Mr. Biden to consolidate the establishment vote against Sen. Bernie Sanders, a challenger from the left.
But for that to happen, there needs to be consensus about which candidate should become the party’s standard-bearer. And the GOP field includes many who may view themselves as laying claim to that role.
One candidate who has universal name recognition, and the résumé, to boot, is Mr. Pence, Mr. Trump’s vice president. Yet he also has the most baggage among Trump supporters who still resent his refusal on Jan. 6 to halt Congress’s counting of electoral votes.
“He’s a known quantity,” says Professor Wolf. But “he’s public enemy number one to a lot of voters he’s going to want in his camp.”
Charlie Neibergall/AP
Meanwhile, Senator Scott, the only member of the U.S. Senate in the race, has drawn notice for his optimistic brand of politics and gained the endorsement of South Dakota Sen. John Thune, the second-ranked Republican in the chamber.
Ms. Haley, the only woman in the race, is also well known as a former Trump administration official and has her own power base in South Carolina. Eric Tanenblatt, an Atlanta-based fundraiser for Ms. Haley, says her getting an early start in a crowded field was important. “She got into the race early and didn’t wait for anyone else, and that has paid off,” he says.
Still, that crowded field may not stay crowded, says Mr. Tanenblatt, a veteran of Georgia political campaigns. “After this week, the field will be set. But I’m not sure everyone will be in the race come the fall,” he says.