Are Americans having enough babies to keep the nation going? What does a falling birthrate mean for the future of the United States?

From Deseret News. Births to teenagers hit a new low in 2022, following a decades-old trend that began in 1991, despite brief increases in 2006 and 2007. And the birthrate for young women, ages 20-24, also reached a record low.

Who is praying on the wall?

But not all birth declines are being hailed as good news. Demographic experts say reports on fertility rates are not just an interesting look at numbers. Fertility is a roadmap to aspects of the future that have great bearing on most people’s lives in one way or another, though they may not recognize it. …

Births overall, in fact, are down — though by an insignificant less than 1%, according to 2022 provisional data that includes nearly all the birth certificates filed that year, according to a report just released by the National Center for Health Statistics within the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“Fertility has been declining basically since the Great Recession,” Emily Harris, senior demographer at the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah, told the Deseret News. She said when economic times are hard, it’s “normal” for both births and immigration to decline. …

Ask why the fertility trend is down and experts say they have theories, not proof. But there are compelling ideas about why people are delaying or not having children.

“There are a ton of issues going on,” Harris said. “Things people are talking about as societal, institutional issues and problems, such as the inability to find housing, the inability to find affordable housing, the increasing cost of day care or even trying to find a day care. There are inflation concerns. Things are becoming more expensive.” …

One factor in drooping fertility, which is happening in most of the world, is clear, experts say. Many people are waiting longer to have their first child, which also limits the number of children they can have.

3.6 million-plus new Americans

In 2022, 3,661,220 births were recorded in the United States, according to the provisional data, which is unlikely to change significantly when finalized in a few months. The center said the report includes the 99.91% of births in 2022 that had been registered by Feb. 14, 2023. Data for American Samoa, Guam and the U.S. Virgin Islands were not yet available.

The general fertility rate was 56.1 births per 1,000 women of what’s considered prime childbearing ages, 15-44. That rate had fallen about 2% every year between 2014 and 2020, before climbing 1% in 2021 and then falling very slightly in 2022.

But the U.S. population is shrinking over time, demographers say: The total fertility replacement rate is 2.1 births per 1,000 women. The rate in 2022 was 1.665 births per 1,000 women, well below that replacement rate. According to the report, “The total fertility rate estimates the number of births that a hypothetical group of 1,000 women would have over their lifetimes, based on the age-specific birth rate in a given year.” …

Why falling fertility is bad news

If you want a stable population size — and experts say not having one portends economic and other challenges — you have to have babies or count on immigration to raise the numbers.

America’s total fertility has “generally been below replacement since 1971 and consistently below replacement since 2007,” the report said.

Changes are coming — though not right away, experts told the Deseret News.

“You don’t feel the effects immediately,” said Harris, “but in 30 to 40 years, you start to feel age structure shifts that impact society and institutions and programs that were built on the assumption you will have the same age structure. A lot of our national policies are built on the assumption that we will have a lot of young people and fewer older people — a large workforce to support those who are older.”

Instead, America is beginning to see a shrinking workforce and a larger number of those retirement age and older. …

Over the longer term, workforce issues arise, from having enough workers to fill jobs to entrepreneurship, which increases with a robust young workforce. And it is typically through younger workers that funding is available so older people get some government support. …

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(Excerpt from Deseret News. Photo Credit: Canva)