When the British think tank Chatham House decided last year to measure the resilience of countries to foreign interference, it chose the tiny nation of Moldova as a pilot study. The timing was perfect. In early March, Moldova’s national intelligence agency said Moscow is planning an “unprecedented” destabilization campaign to influence the Eastern European nation’s presidential election as well as a referendum on European Union membership later this year.
“Since the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, concern has grown that neighbouring Moldova would be next in Moscow’s bid to regain control over the former Soviet republics,” the think tank stated. Indeed, Russia spent more than $55 million last year to influence elections in Moldova, according to the country’s Security and Intelligence Service.
To Moldova’s credit, Chatham House found the country “is becoming more resilient to Russian interference,” especially in society’s strong support for democracy. That conclusion was based on a survey of 37 international and Moldovan experts.
Just where does such resilience lie in Moldova? To be sure, the country has a new agency to counter Russian disinformation, enlisting the “whole of society” to fight lies with the truth. For the first time, Moldova officially deemed Russia a threat. And with EU help, it is pushing social media companies to take down sites with disinformation while improving the media literacy of citizens.
Yet as President Maia Sandu often says, enacting economic reforms and curbing corruption are key antidotes to Russian meddling. She also hopes that persuading voters of the benefits of joining the EU will neutralize Moscow’s propaganda. One poll shows 54.5% would vote for joining the EU.
In the resilience survey, Moldova scored high for civil society’s efforts to counter disinformation. “We’re counting on our society … to help us continue to build resilience [against Russia’s hybrid threat],” Moldova’s foreign minister, Mihai Popsoi, told The Associated Press.
And he added, “It’s not whether the Russians would want to come … and violate our sovereignty – it’s a matter of whether they could.”