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Local Polling Variations Will Once Again Create a Chaotic Election Night

A quote that has circulated on social media in recent years highlights the erosion of trust in our public institutions and systems: “Everything is a conspiracy when you don’t know how anything works.” The sentiment is derisive but not untrue.

Humans are curious creatures. We seek to fill our knowledge gaps with information, and we want that information to be accurate. 

But sometimes, especially when accurate information is complicated and inaccessible, we settle for easy explanations. Often, those explanations are wrong, at best and at worst, manipulated by bad actors.

An example of this was the 2020 presidential election, as varying state regulations on ballot counting created confusion in a country accustomed to having a clear winner announced on election night. The main culprit of this confusion was the counting of ballots cast before election day.

The COVID-19 pandemic restrictions heightened the number of votes cast by mail. In addition, the Republican presidential candidate’s criticism of mail-in voting ensured that a majority of these votes were from Democrats.

This wouldn’t have made much of a difference on its own. The challenge, however, was each state’s unique rules on when early ballots can be counted.

National elections in the U.S. are administered on a local level, which has many pros and cons. The chief advantage is that decentralized control and a diversity of systems provide good checks and balances, making it more difficult for single entities to tamper with an election.

A primary disadvantage is that there are 50 different systems to understand, which is nearly impossible for most citizens to keep up with. In 2020, Donald Trump and his team of election deniers exploited this ignorance to cast doubt on the legitimacy of particular votes that were not counted until after election day.

He filled the information gaps with falsehoods and is prepared to do it again. 

Some of the damage this will cause is inevitable. Still, it can be mitigated ahead of time if we are aware of voting regulations in various states, particularly those “swing states” that will determine the election outcome.

Of the seven swing states that most pollsters consider up for grabs, only Arizona allows early votes and mail-in ballots to be immediately counted when they are cast or arrive at the local election facility. In Nevada, early ballots can be counted 15 days before election day, but aren’t required to be counted until a week after the election.

Early vote counting cannot begin until election morning in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In North Carolina, election officials must wait until later in the afternoon on election day to begin counting mail-in ballots.

In an ideal situation, this would not be a problem. But in most cases, early votes can’t be counted until after the polls close because election workers are, well, working the election.

Finding enough poll workers to administer elections efficiently has become a growing challenge. In 2022, the vast majority of states had, on average, fewer than eight workers per polling site. Most election workers are older and election official turnover has steadily increased in recent years.

This situation has stretched local election entities thin and requires more time to determine and announce results.

As we approach election day, it is critical that we be aware of the ins and outs of the contours of our national election system. We can’t all become experts, but good faith engagement with the political processes that determine our leaders is crucial for a healthy, functioning democracy.

Below are some helpful resources to become more informed on state-by-state processes of the upcoming election:

CBS News has compiled a map showing which states allow or prohibit early voting and vote-by-mail.

The National Conference of State Legislatures has created a list explaining each state’s (including D.C.) regulations on mail-in and early ballot processing and counting.

Pew Research Center recently released a fact sheet with key facts on poll workers in the United States.

The National Association of Secretaries of State has a helpful website that allows visitors to check their voter registration status, valid forms of identification for each state, polling locations and other important election information. 

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