Forty miles from the northeastern front line of Russia’s war against Ukraine, Olena and her nephew Boris keep a watchful eye on their children and grandchildren as they play in a sun-splashed park of this small city.
“Our moods are tense. Every day we worry about what might come down on us from the sky,” says Olena. “But the children have to be able to get out and have fun.”
The aunt and nephew – who chat with a foreigner on condition of withholding their full names – concur that it was a morale boost to their industrial town when Ukrainian forces in December and January forced Russian troops to retreat from the nearby city of Kupiansk.
Why We Wrote This
Russia is no longer making noteworthy battlefield gains. If anything, it’s been Ukraine, aided by its technological prowess, taking back small pieces of territory. After a punishing winter, Ukraine is in a surprisingly encouraging place.
That bit of progress took Balakliians back to the greater victory of September 2023, when Ukrainian forces liberated their town after more than six months of Russian occupation.
But then Olena tempers her enthusiasm with a reminder of the almost daily attacks of drones and missiles that keep Balakliia on edge.
“Of course, we were happy and relieved when our guys pushed the Russians out of Kupiansk and stopped them from crawling toward us. But at the same time, we know that Kupiansk lies in ruins,” she adds, “and we can’t forget that when the Russians are not crawling, they are flying.”
That mix of stark realism with a dash of optimism reflects a sense among much of the public and experts alike that, despite a trying winter and a demoralizing rise in civilian war casualties, Ukraine finds itself in a surprisingly encouraging place.
It’s certainly better than the darker picture it presented just six months ago. Last fall, Russian troops were on the march, making slow but sustained progress in several eastern and southeastern regions along the front. The strategic rail hub of Pokrovsk was largely occupied – the once roses-filled city destroyed by Russian glide bombs and artillery fire in the process.
Moreover, those losses weakened Ukraine’s negotiating position, prompting U.S. President Donald Trump to pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, unsuccessfully, to cede to Russia the portion of the critical Donetsk region Ukraine still controls – with its 200,000 Ukrainians – in exchange for peace.
Russian advances markedly slowed
Now, as Russia digs into its fifth spring-summer offensive since the February 2022 full-scale invasion, the picture is markedly different, thanks largely to Ukraine’s rapid technological advances.
Russia is no longer making noteworthy territorial gains – if anything, it’s been Ukrainian troops taking back small but symbolically important chunks of territory. And April was the fourth month in a row that Russian casualties exceeded troop replenishment rates – a grim statistic but an encouraging one for Ukrainian forces challenged by a chronic force imbalance.
“Yes, it was a terrible winter for Ukraine, but the country survived, and Ukrainians didn’t back down,” says Mykola Bielieskov, senior defense analyst for the Come Back Alive Initiatives Center in Kyiv. “What we see on the Russian side is that the tempo of their advances is not what it was, and what advances they have made have not yielded major breakthroughs.”
Equally significant, he adds, “the Russians are losing more [troops] than they are mobilizing – and that is true for the past four and even five months.”
Taken together, those two trends mean that Russian losses this year have ballooned for every square mile of territory taken.
“Since the beginning of 2026, the Russians were able to capture 66 square kilometers [25 square miles] of Ukrainian territory – but it took about 123,000 casualties – dead, wounded, or captured – to do it,” says Oleksandr Kovalenko, military and political analyst with the Information Resistance Group in Odesa. “That’s a higher rate of losses than last year,” he adds, “even as the capturing of territory is about four times less than at the end of the last summer campaign.”
Putin’s messaging
What impact, if any, Russia’s setbacks are having on President Vladimir Putin’s plans for the war remains unclear. On Saturday, at Moscow’s annual Victory Day parade, the Russian leader first vowed to achieve total victory in Ukraine – before telling journalists hours later he thought the war was drawing to a close.
What appears clear to some experts is that, compared with the bleak picture at the end of last year, Ukraine has managed to turn the tables on Russia so far this year.
“The Russian spring-summer offensive is underway, but it is not going well,” says Grace Mappes, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War in Washington. “Russian forces lost more territory than they gained in March,” she adds, “which speaks to both Ukraine’s ability to advance on the battlefield and Russia’s struggle to advance against Ukraine’s drone-based defenses.”
Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project
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Jacob Turcotte/Staff
Indeed, it is Ukraine’s technological advance over Russia and its lightning-quick rate of innovation – at least when compared with traditional defense technology powerhouses – that are giving it the edge this year, some analysts say.
“Ukraine’s technological advances are probably the most important factor explaining the improved position it’s now in,” says Mr. Bielieskov. “The story of this war is each side adapting to the other side’s tactics and adjustments,” he adds, noting that, recently, Russia’s ability to “keep up” with Ukraine’s technological innovations appears to have faltered.
He notes, for example, that Ukraine has sharpened its ability to use drones in air defense, thus improving its interception and destruction of Russia’s Shahed drones that terrorized Ukrainian cities over the winter. In March alone, Ukraine shot down 33,000 Russian UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) of all types, he says.
Strikes into Russia
Another factor in Ukraine’s position is its stepped-up campaign of “middle” and “deep” strikes into Russian territory, carried out by Ukraine-based units. Targets range from munitions depots and logistics and command centers behind the front lines to oil and gas infrastructure deeper inside Russia.
“This scaling up of a deep-strike strategy … is affecting Russia’s ability to conduct this war, while it’s also having an economic impact and affecting Russian morale,” says Mr. Kovalenko.
The conclusion he draws from what appears to be Russia’s stalled ground offensive is that “they have lost the ability to conduct large-scale assault campaigns.” If sustained, that would be good news for Ukraine, with Russia expected to use its summer offensive to once again try to seize the rest of Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk.
Despite the overall positive turn of events since last year, Ukrainian analysts caution that the country still faces serious challenges. Chief among them is a scarcity of the kind of air-defense systems that can counter the ballistic missiles that Russia has used – along with drones – to target civilian infrastructure and inflict demoralizing mass casualties.
“Let’s be honest, we are still dependent on our international partners for the air defenses that can take out the ballistic missiles,” Mr. Kovalenko says.
Howard LaFranchi/The Christian Science Monitor
Another weak spot is ammunition supplies, but Ukraine is working to address that problem within the ongoing expansion of its defense industrial base, he adds.
For Ukrainians, a winter of mass-casualty strikes in the country’s major cities and widespread power outages – cutting heat to thousands of high-rise apartment buildings amid freezing temperatures – has dented the national mood. Many report a sense of exhaustion at the prospect of yet another summer offensive.
But that has not translated into resignation to end the war at whatever cost, some say.
“We are holding on”
“I don’t see any signs even after the severe difficulties of winter of Ukrainians considering a need to surrender,” says Mr. Bielieskov. “You don’t see any appeal from the public to the government to accept Russia’s terms for ending the war.”
That fatigue mixed with a determination not to give up is not far below the surface in Balakliia.
“The conditions we live in are not easy, but we are a strong people and we are holding on,” says Tetiana (last name withheld), as she guides grandson Mark in the toddler section of the city park.
Tetiana, the owner of a driving school in town, says that while many longtime residents have moved away, she has noticed that her clientele is now largely made up of Ukrainians moving in from front-line towns and women choosing to be closer to their husbands stationed nearby.
At the Balakliia city hall, city secretary Oksana Bondar says she knows exactly why residents are staying put despite the exhaustion of war and the fear instilled by recurring drone and missile strikes.
“This is our home, and I know that many others feel like me when I say I can’t imagine any place I’d rather live,” says the former elementary school teacher and the only elected member of Balakliia’s otherwise military-appointed administration.
“I am not saying life is not difficult in these conditions,” she says, noting that the night before was particularly terrorizing, including yet another strike on the city’s school. “But this is our land, and knowing that our enemy wants to take it from us keeps us in a fighting mood.”