The Beijing summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Wednesday might be regarded as an almost routine event for two leaders who’ve met more than 40 times in the past 14 years. But the circumstances could hardly be more dramatic.
Mr. Putin’s arrival has long been planned, but it comes hard on the heels of President Donald Trump’s visit last week, which did little to allay Chinese concerns about the unpredictability of relations with the United States. Amid turmoil in the Middle East, and what many see as declining American power, Mr. Putin will be seeking to build on the geopolitical and economic partnership that Russia has been patiently developing with China for many years and that has strengthened greatly since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Russian analysts seem unsure what Mr. Trump accomplished during his three days in Beijing. But they say that the announced “stabilization” of the U.S.-China relationship poses no threat to Mr. Putin’s agenda, which includes signing a new and “strengthened” strategic partnership with Mr. Xi, as well as a declaration on the development of a multipolar world and “a new type” of international relations. Russia and China are on the same page about most foreign policy issues, they say, and the turbulence in the Middle East has focused minds in Moscow and Beijing on ways to use their joint influence to promote common interests.
Sergei Bobylev/Sputnik/Kremlin/AP/File
Why We Wrote This
Donald Trump was trying to ease tensions with China during his visit to Beijing last week. Vladimir Putin’s trip, however, is intended to bolster Russia’s long-standing relationship with China – and to limit their vulnerability to the effects of U.S. adventurism.
“The value of Russia as a partner has increased for China, though they are not about to abandon their multivector approach,” says Dmitry Suslov, an expert with the Higher School of Economics in Moscow. “China has come to regard the U.S. as a strategic adversary. But clearly, neither Washington nor Beijing is interested in escalating the confrontation at this time, and China will continue to invest in its ties with the U.S.”
Growing trade relations
Kremlin officials say that they expect around 40 documents to be signed during the summit – the huge Russian delegation includes five deputy prime ministers, eight ministers, and the heads of the Central Bank and major state corporations, as well as regional governors. But everyone will be watching for progress on the long-stalled Power of Siberia 2 (PS2) pipeline, a proposed 1,615-mile pipeline that would carry up to 40 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually from Russia’s Yamal Peninsula into the industrial heart of China.
Before leaving for China, Mr. Putin expressed hope that the project will move ahead, but insisted that any deal must involve “market-based pricing,” a pointed reference to the disputes that have kept PS2 on the drawing boards for the past several years. Until recently, China has preferred to diversify its sources and avoid dependence on any single supplier. Though details are not known, analysts say the Chinese have been demanding long-term price concessions that the Russians find unacceptable, and the project has languished.
Evan Vucci/Reuters
But the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran and the U.S. might have changed the Chinese calculus, says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, a Moscow-based foreign policy journal. About two-thirds of China’s seaborne trade, and most of its oil imports, pass through the narrow Strait of Malacca, which might be easily controlled by the U.S. Navy.
“The Chinese are very patient negotiators, and they tend to wait until their conditions are met,” Mr. Lukyanov says. “The PS2 talks have been going on, with both sides saying they’re getting closer, but it doesn’t happen. Now, these events in the Gulf have created new conditions, and the Chinese may well be willing to complete the negotiations.”
The pipeline is a near-existential issue for Russia, which needs to find alternative markets for the 150 billion cubic meters of gas it formerly supplied to Europe, before war and sanctions spelled an end to that arrangement. The Power of Siberia 1 pipeline, inaugurated in 2019, now delivers about 40 billion cubic meters of Siberian gas to China. That figure would more than double if PS2 came on line, potentially by 2030.
Trade between Russia and China has more than doubled in the past five years, to around $245 billion. Kremlin adviser Yury Ushakov told journalists this week that most of that trade is now conducted in local currencies, rubles, and yuan, thus avoiding the U.S. dollar and the threat of secondary sanctions that it carries.
The U.S. war in Iran has created challenges that might lead to much stronger Russia-China relations, says Yuri Tavrovsky, deputy chair of the Russia-China Friendship Society, which works closely with the Russian government.
Pelagiya Tikhonova/Sputnik/AP/File
“The crisis in Iran directly impacts us,” he says. “Both Russia and China have proven strategically helpless in the face of U.S. power. We couldn’t help Iran, and now Russian and Chinese leaders need to discuss how they might work together to prevent similar developments in parts of the world where we have common economic, security, and political interests. We may see new steps in our relations that were previously unforeseen.”
A “new type” of relationship?
Mr. Lukyanov of Russia in Global Affairs, who interacts often with his Chinese colleagues, says he has recently noticed a change in atmosphere.
“The Chinese are normally cautious. The Russians, especially since 2022, have wanted to extend the relationship,” he says. “The Chinese have agreed in principle, but not really followed through. Now, they seem more interested in improving connectivity.
“I think that until recently, the Chinese believed they could make some kind of grand bargain with the U.S. But since Trump returned to office, and especially with this Iran war, I think they have let go of those expectations.”
The joint document on a “new type” of international relations that Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi plan to sign might offer some clues as to where the Russia-China relationship might be headed, including shared initiatives on global crises such as energy, food, and climate change.
According to Kremlin aide Mr. Ushakov, Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi are set to meet three more times this year, at various international gatherings.
“One thing is clear: China’s partnership with Russia is definitely on the rise,” says Mr. Suslov.