The unsealed federal indictment on corruption charges Thursday against Eric Adams, New York City’s embattled Democratic mayor, has sent shock waves across the political universe – terrible optics for his party just weeks before the November elections.
But whether the indictment of Mayor Adams will affect the presidential race remains to be seen. Nationally, the smackdown between former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, and Vice President Kamala Harris, who emerged as Democratic nominee just weeks ago, has dominated discussion.
Why We Wrote This
The corruption indictment against Mayor Eric Adams of New York City is a blow to Democrats right before the November elections. Could it have ripple effects on the presidential campaign or congressional races?
It may be that the drama in New York – the first-ever indictment of a sitting mayor in America’s largest city – remains a largely regional issue.
But even there, a local impact could have national implications. The race for control of the U.S. House, with Republicans holding a narrow majority, will hinge on a few races, with one of them on Long Island.
“Voters … are not usually surprised by corruption in big-city politics,” says Democratic strategist Alex Navarro-McKay. But, he adds, there could be “modest effects on the congressional races in the New York City media market.”
Mr. Navarro-McKay is referring to the 4th Congressional District race in Long Island, where GOP Rep. Anthony D’Esposito is under investigation for ethics violations.
The unsealed federal indictment on corruption charges Thursday against Eric Adams, New York City’s embattled Democratic mayor, has sent shock waves across the political universe – terrible optics for his party just weeks before the November elections.
But whether the five-count indictment of Mayor Adams will affect the presidential race remains to be seen. Nationally, the epic smackdown between former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, and Vice President Kamala Harris, who emerged as Democratic nominee just weeks ago, has dominated discussion.
So it may be that the unprecedented drama in New York – the first-ever indictment of a sitting mayor in the Big Apple, America’s largest city – remains a largely regional issue.
Why We Wrote This
The corruption indictment against Mayor Eric Adams of New York City is a blow to Democrats right before the November elections. Could it have ripple effects on the presidential campaign or congressional races?
But even there, a local impact could have national implications. The race for control of the U.S. House, with Republicans currently holding a narrow majority, will hinge on just a few races. One of them happens to be on Long Island.
“Voters across the country are not usually surprised by corruption in big-city politics,” says veteran New York Democratic strategist Alex Navarro-McKay. But, he adds, there could be “very modest effects on the congressional races in the New York City media market.”
Mr. Navarro-McKay is referring to the closely contested 4th Congressional District race in Long Island, where GOP Rep. Anthony D’Esposito is under investigation for ethics violations.
The strategist says that while Republicans don’t seem bothered by former President Trump’s business fraud and sexual misconduct convictions in New York City, the legal troubles have made a dent with independent voters and some Democrats. But as for New York City’s mayor, he adds, “I don’t think voters in Michigan care about Eric Adams,” referring to a key presidential battleground state.
Corruption charges, and calls for Adams to resign
Republican strategists, too, aren’t sure how the Adams indictment will play out nationally. “We’re in uncharted territory,” says Doug Heye, a former communications director for the Republican National Committee.
But in New York City, the news was clearly devastating for Mr. Adams, a veteran of the New York Police Department and state Senate who took office Jan. 1, 2022. His mayoral campaign in 2021 surfaced questions about his ethics, including whether he even lived in New York City. But he won the race as a tough-on-crime former NYPD captain, though he was a longtime opponent of the police force’s stop-and-frisk practices.
By late 2023, Mr. Adams and his reelection campaign were under federal investigation for corrupt practices, including alleged illegal campaign donations from the Turkish government. In November of last year, the FBI seized the mayor’s electronic devices as part of its investigation.
Earlier this year, the walls began closing in on Mr. Adams, as the mayor himself, campaign officials, and New York City administration officials faced investigation and, in some cases, resigned. Others not under investigation stepped down, too, in a sign that the ship was sinking.
Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP
On Thursday, Damian Williams, the U.S. attorney in Manhattan, alleged in a press conference that Mr. Adams and his campaign had accepted more than $100,000 in illegal travel perks from the government of Turkey. The 57-page indictment described charges of bribery, wire fraud, and a conspiracy to receive illegal foreign campaign contributions.
Mr. Adams, in his own press conference outside the New York City mayoral residence, Gracie Mansion – which had been searched hours earlier by federal authorities – refused to step down. Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul has the power to remove Mr. Adams from office, but held off on taking action Thursday, telling reporters that she was reviewing the charges.
Other prominent New York Democrats, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, called on Mr. Adams to step down.
“I do not see how Mayor Adams can continue governing New York City,” Representative Ocasio-Cortez wrote on the social platform X. “The flood of resignations and vacancies are threatening gov function. Nonstop investigations will make it impossible to recruit and retain a qualified administration.”
“For the good of the city, he should resign,” she said.
Yuki Iwamura/AP
Who would take over if Adams departs?
Questions swirled Thursday over who would take over for Mr. Adams if he were to resign. Normally, the city’s public advocate would replace a mayor who left office prematurely, but it is uncertain whether current the current public advocate, Jumaane Williams, would do so.
Mr. Williams, a progressive Democrat who has been critical of the mayor’s comparatively moderate stances on some issues, was elected public advocate for New York City in 2019 and reelected in 2021. He ran unsuccessfully for New York governor in 2022.
On Wednesday evening, before Mr. Adams was officially charged, Mr. Williams’ spokesperson posted on X that the news of the indictment was serious, and that the public advocate would say more as facts emerged. But Mr. Williams’ public appearances for Thursday were canceled. Neither Mr. Williams’ office nor Governor Hochul’s office responded to emails requesting comment.
Regarding the broader implications, one prominent Democratic New York strategist surmised that the impact of the Adams scandal would not go beyond the city’s metro area. Though even that could be impactful.
“It’s likely to be an issue in the suburban New York districts that could help determine the House majority,” said Lis Smith in a text. But other than that, she didn’t see the scandal having much of a national effect. “It’s a New York scandal through and through – not the first and definitely not the last!”
“And I would add that it’s gonna be tough for NY Republicans to weaponize it too much when they are all standing by Trump who was convicted of crimes,” she added. “It’s all very New York, very tawdry.”