Claudia Sheinbaum will take the oath of office Oct. 1 as Mexico’s first female president in more than 200 years of independence, promising to protect an expanded social safety net and fight for the poor like her predecessor, but facing pressing problems.
The scientist-turned-politician will receive a country with a number of immediate challenges, foremost among them stubbornly high levels of violence, a sluggish economy, and hurricane-battered Acapulco.
Dr. Sheinbaum romped to victory in June with nearly 60% of the vote, propelled largely by the sustained popularity of her political mentor, former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
He took office six years ago declaring “For the good of all, first the poor,” and promising historical change from the neoliberal economic policies of his predecessors. Dr. Sheinbaum promised continuity from his popular social policies to controversial constitutional reforms to the judiciary and National Guard rammed through during his final days in office.
Despite her pledge of continuity, she is a very different personality.
“López Obrador was a tremendously charismatic president and many times that charisma allowed him to cover up some political errors that Claudia Sheinbaum will not have that possibility of doing,” said Carlos Pérez Ricart, a political analyst at Mexico’s Center for Economic Research and Teaching. “So, where López Obrador was charismatic, Claudia Sheinbaum will have to be effective.”
He is not leaving her an easy situation.
Her first trip as president will be to the flood-stricken Pacific coast resort of Acapulco.
Hurricane John, which struck as a Category 3 hurricane last week and then reemerged into the ocean and struck again as a tropical storm, caused four days of incredibly heavy rain that killed at least 17 people along the coast around Acapulco. The city was devastated in October 2023 by Hurricane Otis and had not recovered from that blow when John hit.
Dr. Sheinbaum must also deal with raging violence in the cartel-dominated northern city of Culiacan, where factional fighting within the Sinaloa cartel broke out after drug lords Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada and Joaquín Guzmán López were apprehended in the United States after they flew there in a small plane on July 25.
Mr. López Obrador has long sought to avoid confronting Mexico’s drug cartels and has openly appealed to the gangs to keep the peace among themselves, but the limitations of that strategy have become glaringly apparent in Culiacan, the capital of Sinaloa state, where gun battles have raged on the city’s streets. Local authorities and even the army – which Mr. López Obrador has relied on for everything – have essentially admitted that the fighting will only end when the cartel bosses decide to end it.
But that’s only the latest hotspot.
Drug-related violence is surging from Tijuana in the north to Chiapas in the south, displacing thousands.
While Dr. Sheinbaum inherits a huge budget deficit, unfinished construction projects, and a burgeoning bill for her party’s cash hand-out programs – all of which could send financial markets tumbling – perhaps her biggest looming concern is the possibility of a victory for Donald Trump in the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election.
Mr. Trump has already vowed to slap 100% tariffs on vehicles made in Mexico. Though that would likely violate the current U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, there are other things Mr. Trump could do to make life difficult for Dr. Sheinbaum, including his pledge of massive deportations.
Things with its northern neighbor were already tense after Mr. López Obrador said he was putting relations with the U.S. embassy “on pause” after public criticism of the proposed judicial overhaul.
First lady Jill Biden struck an optimistic tone for relations with the incoming Sheinbaum administration saying at a reception Sept. 30 that, “Under Dr. Sheinbaum’s presidency I know we will continue to build a more prosperous, safe and democratic region – and take the steps in our U.S.-Mexico partnership.”
There are areas where Dr. Sheinbaum could try to take Mexico in a new direction. For example, she has a Ph.D. in energy engineering and has spoken of the need to address climate change. Mr. López Obrador built a massive new oil refinery and poured money into the state-owned oil company. But his budget commitments do not leave her much room to maneuver.
Jennifer Piscopo, professor of gender and politics at the Royal Holloway University of London who has studied Latin America for decades, said Mexico electing its first female leader is important because it will show girls they can do it, too, but it can also create unrealistic expectations.
“Woman firsts are powerful symbols, but they do not gain magic power,” she said. “Especially when the governance challenges are so large, expecting magic solutions overnight can also generate outsized disappointment.”
This story was reported by The Associated Press.