The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, mastermind of the Oct. 7 attack on Israel that led to a year-plus of war in Gaza, has shaken the region like an earthquake.
The questions now are on whether his death might facilitate the Gaza cease-fire and hostages release deal the Biden administration has promoted for months. And even more, revive the regional plan under consideration before the war, including Saudi-Israeli normalization and a pathway to a Palestinian state.
Why We Wrote This
After a harrowing year of war in Gaza and the Middle East, the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar rekindled hopes for a grand U.S.-led plan to move the region into a more peaceful era. But many obstacles, Israeli and Palestinian, remain.
Almost immediately, President Joe Biden signaled his hope that removal of the Sinwar obstacle would jump-start peace efforts. Indeed, several Gulf Arab diplomats appeared Friday to want to jump on the Biden “opportunity” bandwagon, seeing a chance to advance the plan that had been grounded for months and even to prevent an Israel-Iran war.
Yet words of caution abound, with some doubting whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is ready to subordinate his domestic political considerations.
“This should be an opportunity to advance the Biden initiative, which envisions a resolution of longstanding regional issues,” says Nimrod Novik, a former Israeli government official. “But the cork in the bottle for all of this is Gaza, and if you don’t uncork Gaza, you can’t get to the rest.”
Just over a year ago, the Biden administration was pressing Middle East partners forward on a transformative plan for the region that would include normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia and a definitive pathway to a Palestinian state.
Then Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar launched the surprise Oct. 7 attack on Israel – one of his motivations being to scuttle an American peace plan that seemed increasingly imminent.
A devastating war in Gaza – and expansion of the conflict to Hezbollah in Lebanon and to Iran – ensued.
Why We Wrote This
After a harrowing year of war in Gaza and the Middle East, the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar rekindled hopes for a grand U.S.-led plan to move the region into a more peaceful era. But many obstacles, Israeli and Palestinian, remain.
Now Mr. Sinwar has again shaken the region like an earthquake, this time with his death in a firefight Wednesday with Israeli soldiers on patrol in Gaza.
The question now is whether the Oct. 7 mastermind’s death might facilitate the Gaza cease-fire and hostages release deal the Biden administration has promoted for months – and even revive the grand regional plan.
For many experts, the answer depends heavily on navigating both ambitious Israeli war goals and internal Palestinian divisions.
Almost immediately, Thursday, President Joe Biden signaled his hope that removal of the Sinwar obstacle would jumpstart peace efforts.
“There is now the opportunity for a ‘day after’ in Gaza without Hamas in power, and for a political settlement that provides a better future for Israelis and Palestinians alike,” Mr. Biden said in a statement.
Indeed, several Gulf Arab diplomats appeared Friday to want to jump on the Biden “opportunity” bandwagon, seeing a chance to advance the plan that had been grounded for months and even to prevent an Israel-Iran war.
But the president’s optimistic assessment is most likely premature, many regional analysts and diplomatic experts say. If anything, some add, Mr. Sinwar’s death is likely to lead to a reorganizational period for Hamas, while it could embolden Israel in ways that put off any resolution even further.
“Any advancement in plans by Arab states depends heavily on Israel’s policy moving forward,” says Hesham Alghannam, Saudi political scientist and non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Center.
“If Israel sees this as an opportunity to further its objectives and continues its aggression on Gaza without concessions, as it did in the past, it will hinder Arab Gulf state efforts.”
“There have been two preeminent decision makers in this conflict,” Mr. Sinwar and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, “and I don’t believe the disappearance of one is going to mean the necessary steps for ending this war are going to happen any more quickly,” says Aaron David Miller, a longtime Middle East diplomat.
It’s not just a question of agreeing to a cease-fire and freeing the hostages, says Mr. Miller, who served in both Democratic and Republican administrations. “Those things mandate critically important questions that won’t be answered easily.”
Among them: What security authorities will exist in postwar Gaza that will ensure no resurgence of Hamas? What role will there be for the Palestinian Authority? Will there be Arab countries’ boots on the ground?
A shift, but not an end?
For Mr. Miller, Mr. Biden’s suggestion that Mr. Sinwar’s removal opens a window to resolve the conflict underscores once again the issue of timing.
“The Hamas clock and the Netanyahu clock are not running as quickly as the Biden administration’s, and it’s just not realistic to think Sinwar’s death has done anything to synchronize these clocks,” he says.
“This is a moral issue and a legacy issue for a president who had hoped to resolve this before leaving office,” notes Mr. Miller, now a senior fellow in U.S. foreign policy at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “That’s very different from the considerations motivating the next steps of either Netanyahu or of an organization taking time to consider its future.”
The demise of a key player whose overarching goal was the destruction of Israel will alter the course of the conflict, others say, but less than conclusively.
“Yes, this does present an opportunity for a shift … but at best it’s going to be a change to a different phase in the Gaza piece of this,” says Seth Jones, president of the Defense and Security Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “This doesn’t bring an end to anything.”
The “opportunity” he sees is for the Israelis, specifically Mr. Netanyahu, “to move into a phase that is more diplomatic and starts to address these big governance and security questions hanging over Gaza.”
Some with insight into both U.S. and Israeli politics agree that the moment presents an opportunity – but they doubt Mr. Netanyahu is ready to subordinate his domestic political considerations to seize it.
“This should be an opportunity to advance the Biden initiative, which envisions a resolution of longstanding regional issues,” says Nimrod Novik, a former Israeli government official and Israel fellow with the Israel Policy Forum in Washington.
“But the cork in the bottle for all of this is Gaza,” he says, “and if you don’t uncork Gaza you can’t get to the rest.” But he says that would imply doing things in Gaza – including much more extensive humanitarian assistance and some role for the Palestinian authority – that couldn’t pass muster with part of Mr. Netanyahu’s government.
“Unfortunately, for Netanyahu his coalition is more precious than even bringing back the hostages,” he says.
And nothing suggests a desire in the government coalition to move forward with the Americans.
Bezalel Smotrich, a far-right cabinet minister, posted on social media platform X shortly after Sinwar’s death was confirmed that he “hears the talk abroad about ‘an opportunity to end the war,’ from those who tried to pressure us to stop the war a long time ago and stop us from entering Rafah.”
“If they are aiming right now at a surrender deal in which Israel dumps the achievements of the war that were bought with a lot of blood, I tell them – to forget about it,” he wrote in the post.
Dawoud Abu Alkas/Reuters
Achieving a meeting of the minds
Still, some Israeli analysts hold out hope that the government can move beyond its most extreme members to seize the moment.
Shimrit Meir, who advised former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, is among those also urging Mr. Netanyahu’s government to take advantage of the void in Hamas leadership.
“Sinwar was a symbol the de-facto leader of the Palestinian national movement. He was the kind of leader you see once in a generation, the fact that he’s gone allows for a reshuffling of the cards,” she told the Israeli podcast “Unholy.”
Meanwhile, Arab Gulf states on Friday were pitching the day-after plan not only as the off-ramp to the Israel-Hamas war, but as a key to easing regional tensions.
“Sinwar’s killing gives us momentum. There are no Hamas hard-liners standing in our way,” says an Arab Gulf diplomat who was not authorized to speak to the press. “But the ball is now in Netanyahu’s court.
“The main components for the day-after plan for Gaza have all been agreed upon by us Gulf states, the EU, and the Americans,” the diplomat said. “A technocrat Palestinian Authority entity, no Hamas in government, Gulf-funded reconstruction, and security guarantees for Israel.”
Although Arab states have been holding high-level discussions with Israel over the initiative for months, “we have been given conflicting messages from the Israeli government whether Israel supports the plan, or is ignoring it completely,” the diplomat added.
That assessment does not take into account continuing indecision and disagreement among key Palestinians on how to move forward.
While the main five Arab states involved – Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar – are unanimous on the plan, infighting among Palestinian factions has hindered the final talks over any new Palestinian governing entity.
“The internal Palestinian political landscape, marked by factionalism and infighting, serves as a significant barrier,” says Dr. Alghannam, the Saudi analyst.
“These divisions not only complicate immediate post-war governance and security arrangements but also hinder the broader objective of creating a sustainable, unified Palestinian state or administrative entity,” he says.
Most experts see Israel pursuing its military operations in Gaza and against Hezbollah in Lebanon no matter how much the U.S. promotes the moment as providing an off-ramp from war.
But if Mr. Netanyahu does decide to shift at least partially to a more diplomatic phase, he’s going to need the backing of the Americans for moving forward, Dr. Jones of CSIS says. “The Israelis are going to continue their operations where they see their security at stake, no matter what Washington says.”
“But where the Israelis are going to need help is at that point where [Mr. Netanyahu] decides he ready to think about what’s next in Gaza,” he says. “It’s not at all clear yet when he’s going to be ready to take up those broader issues.”
Special correspondent Dina Kraft contributed from Tel Aviv, and special contributor Fatima AbdulKarim contributed from Ramallah.